A model of cooperation between former enemies of the Cold War, the Arctic Council experienced a delicate handover on Thursday due to the banishment of the largest country in the region, Russia, after its offensive in Ukraine.
After two years of Russian presidency, Norway took the reins of an interstate forum generally considered exemplary until the invasion of Ukraine led seven of the eight members – United States, Canada and the five Nordic countries – to suspend their work with Moscow last year.
Western ministers having declined an invitation from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to visit Siberia, the handover took place digitally on Thursday, with senior officials only.
“It is essential that the Arctic Council maintain its role as the most important multilateral forum for dealing with Arctic issues,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt said in a statement.
According to a joint statement by Council members, the Scandinavian country has offered to host a meeting in 2025, the exact format of which has not been specified, particularly regarding the level of Russian participation.
Tuesday, in an email to AFP, Ms. Huitfeldt had stressed that preserving the regional body would be “the main objective” of the Norwegian presidency, while specifying “not to have any illusions that it will be easy given the current international tensions.
In the eyes of the experts, the sidelining of Russia weakens a forum where issues of common interest are discussed, from environmental protection to sustainable development, including the situation of indigenous populations in a region that is warms four times faster than the whole planet.
Since its creation in 1996, the Council has become the main arena for cooperation in a region where the accelerated retreat of the sea ice, due to global warming, opens up economic opportunities (hydrocarbons, minerals, fishing) and maritime routes that are promising but likely to threaten a fragile ecosystem and vulnerable populations.
Two Arctic?
Apart from tensions during Donald Trump’s time in the White House, relations in this forum where consensus is the rule are generally smooth, in part because thorny subjects like security are not part of its field of action. .
It even got him nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in the past.
After suspending their cooperation with Moscow in early March 2022, the other seven member countries (the A7s) agreed to continue the work which does not involve Russian participation, but this however only represents about a third of the Council’s approximately 130 projects. .
“Can regional governance really make sense and be effective at the circumpolar level if an Arctic state as large as Russia is not around the table? asks Dwayne Ryan Menezes of the think tank Polar Research and Policy Initiative.
“Or will the Arctic split into rival spheres of influence, potentially also with competing forums for cooperation and governance — one involving the A7s and one led by Russia and involving non-Arctic actors? such as China? “, he continues.
To break its isolation, Moscow is indeed turning more and more towards other powers, primarily China, but also emerging nations such as India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
In April, Moscow and Beijing, for example, signed a memorandum of cooperation between their coastguards in the Arctic.
Professor of Nordic studies at the Norwegian University of Tromsø, Rasmus Gjedssø Bertelsen says he is “critical of this Western policy of boycott which does not change anything on the battlefield in Ukraine but reduces our access to the way Russians think”.
An Arctic Council halved “of course has much less value”, explains the Danish academic to AFP.
“It’s very easy for Westerners to collaborate with each other because we have a lot of common interests, but we mustn’t neglect the Russian half, which is the most interesting and the most important with the North-East maritime passage and all its natural resources,” he argues.