(Ottawa) Despite the billions in new defense investments that were announced on Monday, Canada will remain in the group of NATO deadbeats for several more years. The objective set by the government, in its review of defense policy, is to devote 1.76% of GDP to the defense budget in 2029-2030.
The projection was provided by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the Trenton military base on Monday, the day the policy titled Our North, strong and free.
In the foreword to the highly anticipated document, which lasts around thirty pages, Minister of National Defense Bill Blair, who was also present at the Trenton base, welcomes this leap forward in funding. of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF).
But in the same sentence, he confirms that Ottawa is not keeping its promise to its allies.
“This is a significant increase in Canada’s defense spending and represents a major step forward in our efforts to spend 2% of the country’s GDP, as agreed by NATO members at the Vilnius Summit in 2023,” he wrote.
Under the policy, the federal government will invest some $8.1 billion over five years, and $73 billion over the next 20 years. It also puts Canada “on track” to exceed the 20% target set by NATO for major equipment spending.
This means that three months before the Washington summit, and as the Trans-Pacific Partnership celebrates its 75th anniversary in a context of geopolitical upheaval, the government is confirming what many suspected: Canada will continue to be a bad student.
“We have to remember where we come from. When we took power in 2015, Canada spent around 1% of its gross domestic product on defense,” he argued when asked how NATO could react to the failure to achieve the goal. minimum target of 2%.
“We continue to work to reach this 2%, and we will continue to do so with other expenditures,” said the Prime Minister. To illustrate his point, he cited unbudgeted investments in the plan, including the possible purchase of submarines, or the desired increase in Armed Forces personnel.
According to the most recent estimates from the political-military alliance which were published in mid-March, Canada will devote 1.33% of its GDP to the defense budget, and 14.4% for major equipment spending. , in 2023.
A military eclipse…
Defense policy Our North, strong and free succeeds Protection, Security, Commitmentwhich dates back to 2017. Professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, Andrea Charron couldn’t believe her eyes on Monday: finally, the government has clarified its military orientations.
“It’s the version of an eclipse for the Ministry of Defense: we’ve been waiting for it for a long time, it doesn’t happen often, and when it happens, we’re a little in shock,” illustrates the one who is also director of the Center for Defense and Security Studies.
It holds back the billions in new investments more than the Canadian inability to reach the famous 2% of NATO. Like several experts, she believes that reaching the target is unrealistic at present.
“I don’t think we could spend 2% of our GDP, even if we said we could. It’s like trying to drink from a fire hose,” says Professor Charron, citing the issues of personnel shortages and the deficiencies of the military acquisition process.
… noticed by Washington
The government received warm congratulations from the United States Embassy in Canada. Washington’s head of mission in Ottawa, David Cohen, welcomed “the firm financial commitments”, the “largest in defense spending in recent Canadian history”.
He did not even take issue with the absence of a detailed plan to reach 2%.
“Moving from 1.33% to 1.76% by 2029-2030 represents real progress, and we are encouraged by the assurances we have received regarding additional investments,” he declared by way of communicated shortly after the government announcement.
The Arctic in the sights
The title of the document, Our North, strong and free, gives a good idea of Canadian directions. “Our Northwest Passage and the broader Arctic region are already more accessible, and our adversaries are not waiting to take advantage,” it reads.
“We are seeing greater Russian activity in our aerial approaches, and an increasing number of Chinese surveillance platforms and ships are collecting data on and mapping the region,” Minister Blair warns in the preface.
The construction of a new satellite ground station in the Canadian Arctic (23 million over five years) and the establishment of operational support hubs in the North (18 million over five years) are among the possible solutions to counter the threats Russian and Chinese.
New equipment…maybe
If the acquisition of new equipment appears in the plan, the details are missing.
“We will study the possibilities of renewing and expanding our submarine fleet”, “We will study the possibilities of modernizing or replacing fleets of tanks and light armored vehicles”, we read, among others.
Same vagueness regarding the overhaul of the acquisition process, a recurring problem.
“We will rethink how we acquire equipment, how to better maintain and modernize it over time, and how to ensure that it is optimized to meet the diverse needs of the military,” it says.
“We will also shorten the timetable for major acquisition projects, to reduce operational and financial risks linked to delays and gaps between capabilities removed from service and new capabilities added,” it added.
Staff recruitment and retention
One of the handicaps of the Canadian Armed Forces is the shortage of personnel. The good news is that we are heading towards a net gain for the year 2023-2024, noted a senior officer during a technical briefing session on Monday morning.
However, much remains to be done to improve the conditions of soldiers and their families. Thus, in the vein of the Liberal pre-budget announcements, the document mentions the deployment of a new housing strategy and access to childcare services in 10 bases across the country.
Better salaries and benefits and “measures to promote work-life balance for the military” are also being studied, because the current framework, put in place several decades ago, “does not meet the expectations and realities of today’s military.”
From now on, defense policy reviews will come every four years, a senior government official said during a technical briefing for the media on Monday morning.