Decryption | The Nord Stream 1 turbine saga

We have never heard so much about turbines. And who would have thought that such a device would be the cause of a diplomatic incident between Canada and major world powers? Return on the file in seven times.

Melanie Marquis
The Press

What exactly happened?

Afraid of having its gas supply cut off, Berlin called on Ottawa for help in June. Moscow was claiming a turbine that was undergoing repairs at the Siemens plant in Montreal. Without this device intended for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, a pipeline that connects Russia to Germany, deliveries would scoop, threatened the Kremlin. The problem is that under the Canadian government’s sanctions regime against Russia, the turbine could not be sent to its owner, Gazprom. On July 9, the balance tipped in favor of Germany: the Trudeau government violated its own sanctions. In addition to authorizing the export of the turbine stuck in Montreal to Germany, he allowed the same for five other turbines. If nothing changes, they will be able to go back and forth between the two continents for maintenance purposes.

The turbine has been sent, is the problem solved?

No. The turbine has been in storage at the Siemens factory in Mülheim, Germany, for almost three weeks. It was used for a photo op during Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit, but not to operate the 1,200 km pipeline linking Russia to Germany. It is because Gazprom claims that European sanctions prevent it from doing so, which the European Commission has denied. Moscow is simply looking for “an excuse not to supply gas to the European Union”, decided, according to Agence France-Presse, a spokesperson for the European executive, on Friday.

How did Canada justify this departure from its sanctions regime?

The answer has evolved over time. In July, Justin Trudeau pleaded that it was so as not to penalize Canada’s allies, which had never been the purpose of the sanctions. However, three days ago, Mélanie Joly said instead that Berlin and Ottawa had devised a plan to catch Moscow in the act of bluffing. “This is a rather insulting argument for the allies of Eastern Europe, who have known from experience for a couple of decades that Russia uses energy as a weapon”, reacts Maria Popova, professor at the Department of political science from McGill University. “Canada and Germany are right that Putin was bluffing, but why reinvent the wheel? Why do we need to rediscover that water is wet? “, continues this specialist in Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Didn’t Ottawa fall into a trap?

The Ukrainian ambassador to Ottawa, Yuliya Kovaliv, is convinced that the Trudeau government has been rolled in the flour, and that it has ventured on a “slippery slope”. It was enough to “do a search on Google” to discover the modus operandi of the strong man of the Kremlin, she quipped before a House of Commons committee on Thursday. Professor Maria Popova agrees. “The reason Russia bluffed was to gauge the strength of the West’s resolve on sanctions. It was a test. Germany, in particular, failed this test, but with the help of Canada,” she says. The breach does not represent, however, according to M^me Popova, a major issue or a turning point in the war that Moscow has been waging in Kyiv since February 24.

How could anyone know exactly that it was a ploy?

Going back a few years, before the Maidan revolution, this revolt against the pro-Russian government in Kyiv, in 2014. “As a means of pressure, overnight, Russia said that there were technical problems with the export of such and such a commodity which suddenly no longer met Russian sanitary conditions,” recalls Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. “The story of the turbine is part of this long-term policy. Russia was officially saying that it could not increase the distribution of gas because of a technical problem due to the sanctions, which was not true”, he explains.

Why is the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline strategically important for Moscow?

It is perfect for blackmailing Europeans, especially the German neighbor. “For a very long time, certainly in the last 20 years, the Germans have believed that the more trade we developed with Russia, the lower the dangers of war or conflict,” underlines Mr. Arel. The opposite has happened: Moscow has learned to “use the energy lever as a political weapon”, he continues.

What is the next step, now that the turbine is immobilized in Mülheim?

The permit issued by the Trudeau government is revocable at any time. In the Ukrainian camp, just like in the Conservative Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party, we are asking that it be torn immediately. If the German ambassador to Ottawa, Sabine Sparwasser, did not close the door to a revocation, Minister Mélanie Joly did not announce Canadian intentions. But the damage is in a way already done, judge Dominique Arel, and even if the question of maintaining the permit remains “important” on a symbolic level, “with regard to the central showdown between Russia and Germany which is currently taking place, it has become completely secondary,” he says. The coming months, they promise to be “very hard in Europe, because we are heading towards a probably complete cut in gas deliveries in the fall”, adds the professor.