Decryption | Dreaming of a hat-trick in the land of Trump

An abortion referendum in Ohio and gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi could give Democrats a three-peat in Trump country on Tuesday. At least, that’s the dream they cherish. Is this a simple mirage? State of play.

(New York) A tangled question

In three of the states where voters will go to the polls – Virginia, Kentucky and Ohio – abortion will take center stage. In Ohio, this question will even be the subject of a referendum intended to enshrine in the State Constitution the right to abortion until the fetus is viable.

If polls are anything to go by, pro-choice people should win. After all, surveys released in July and October indicated that 58 percent of Ohio voters favored the proposed constitutional amendment.

Such a result would confirm the appeal of reproductive rights to the electorate of most American states, including those that voted for Donald Trump (in 2020, the latter beat Joe Biden by 8 percentage points in Ohio, state both industrial and rural Midwest). The Democrats already plan to emphasize this theme during the 2024 elections.

But Republicans in the Buckeye State don’t consider themselves defeated yet. Last August, it should be remembered, they lost a first referendum which would have increased the majority required to modify the Constitution of their State in the context of a popular initiative referendum from 50% plus one vote to 60%.

After this defeat, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican opposed to abortion, used his position to change the text of the referendum question on which voters in his state will vote on Tuesday.

Originally, this text explicitly recognized the right of the State to prohibit abortion after the viability of the fetus, i.e. approximately 23 weeks, unless the pregnant woman’s doctor considers that the termination of the pregnancy “is necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant patient.”

However, according to the text drafted by the Secretary of State, the constitutional amendment “would still allow an unborn child to be aborted at any stage of pregnancy, regardless of its viability”.

This language not only distorts the viability provision, but also replaces the word “fetus” with “unborn child,” a contested term that could influence how some voters vote.

The conservative-majority Ohio Supreme Court upheld the secretary of state’s right to change the text of the referendum question as he did.

A popular governor

Kentucky Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is also banking on abortion to win a second term in a state where Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by 26 percentage points in 2020. He faces state Attorney General Daniel Cameron , an African-American whom he accuses of wanting to ban almost all abortions, even in cases of incest and rape.

Despite belonging to the party of a widely hated president in Kentucky, Beshear is one of the most popular governors in the United States and the most popular Democratic governor among Republicans (at the end of July, he had 50% favorable opinions among Grand Old Party voters, according to a Morning Consult poll).

Son of a Democratic governor who completed a second and final term in 2015, Andy Beshear presents himself as an apolitical politician who distinguishes himself by contributing to the economic growth of his state and by competently managing natural or health crises.

He nevertheless defends controversial Democratic policies, and not just on abortion. He also delighted progressives in his party by becoming one of the few red state governors to use a provision of Barack Obama’s health care law to expand the number of people eligible for the state health insurance program for the poor (Medicaid).

His Republican rival, Daniel Cameron, enjoys major support. He is not only the protégé of powerful Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell, but also Donald Trump’s choice among the Republican candidates running for governor of the state. Like other Republican candidates in the United States these days, he attacks his opponent on crime and transgender rights.

A cousin of Elvis

Even though he is a distant cousin of the most famous singer born in Mississippi, Brandon Presley does not owe his chances of creating the biggest electoral surprise on Tuesday to his surname. A member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, this 46-year-old former mayor is leading a vigorous campaign against the outgoing Republican governor, Tate Reeves, whose popularity is undermined by a deficit of charisma and a surplus of cases calling into question his probity.

While he promises to improve the education system and expand medical coverage for citizens of Mississippi, the poorest state in the United States, Presley breaks with the Democratic Party on certain issues, including abortion, which he opposes.

To win, the Democratic candidate will have to count on greater participation from African-Americans in Mississippi, who represent no less than 38% of the electorate, a larger share than in any other American state.

Mississippi has not elected a Democratic governor in 24 years. In 2019, Governor Reeves led his rival by 5 percentage points in a state where, a year later, Donald Trump eclipsed Joe Biden by 16 percentage points.

If the Democrats achieve this hat-trick in Trump’s country, they will have no choice but to sing one of Elvis’ hits in unison: All Shook Up.

The Republicans too.