It’s not a presidential election, but the mid-term elections, the ” mid term “, as they are called here, will be decisive for the continuation of the presidency of Joe Biden. On 8th November next, the Americans will again be called to the polls. They will have to choose their local elected officials, and also redraw the legislative framework in Washington by choosing the representatives and senators of each state, with whom the White House will have to deal for the next two years and the rest of the Democrat’s mandate.
An exercise generally unfavorable to the party in power and which, this year, is of capital importance in an increasingly divided political climate, marked by the rise of Republican candidates, several of whom are still supported by a Donald Trump who does not weaken, who are ready to anything to regain power, including denying the foundations of democracy. Decoding a poll.
Five states to watch
Republicans only need one more Senate seat to regain dominance in the upper house of Congress and frustrate the policies of Joe Biden’s Democrats. And it is through a handful of states that their dream could well materialize.
Nevada. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is certainly the most threatened Democrat in the country, in this western state that Joe Biden won by a narrow majority of two percentage points in 2020. She leads by a tiny lead in the latest polls against to ex-state attorney general Adam Laxalt, the law and order nominee, backed by ex-president Donald Trump.
Georgia. Trump candidate Herschel Walker, a former football player, has made life difficult for Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock by leading in the polls in the first weeks of the race. But the avowedly anti-abortion and staunchly conservative Republican seems to have since been caught up in his contradictions, after media reports revealed he paid for his ex-girlfriend to have an abortion in 2009.
Pennsylvania. For the senator seat vacated by Republican Pat Toomey, who is not running again, the race is tight between Democrat John Fetterman and Donald Trump-backed star candidate, surgeon Mehmet Oz, whom his TV show The Dr. Oz Show has become an icon of the small screen. As the election approaches, the Republican continues to narrow his gap on his opponent, the current lieutenant governor of the state, struck at the start of his campaign by a cardiovascular accident from which he is still struggling to recover.
Wisconsin. The ground is not easy for Democrats hoping to unseat Ron Johnson, the only Republican senator to seek another term in a state won by Joe Biden in 2020. Last week, a Marquette Law School probe still placed his Democratic opponent, Mandela Barnes, lieutenant-governor of the state and young rising figure of the party, far behind – by six points – in the voting intentions.
Ohio. The person chosen by ex-president Donald Trump for this state, the entrepreneur and writer of rural America JD Vance, remains ahead for the seat given up to the voters by the current Republican senator Robert Portman, facing the Democratic candidate Tim Ryan, who currently sits in the House of Representatives. But with a narrowing gap in the polls as the election approaches and nearly 10% of voters still expressing their indecision, the mass is not yet over.
Worrying candidates
No less than 370 Republican candidates currently in the race for all offices in these midterm elections have denied or continue to deny the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential victory. made last week New York Timeswho sees in it a clean break within this party with respect to a fundamental principle of democracy: the voters decide the result of the vote and the candidates accept it.
Several headliners also claim that they will contest the results of next November in the event of defeat. While others remain nebulous on their intention to respect the decision of the voters.
Among them are Senate candidates Ted Budd of North Carolina, Blake Masters of Arizona, Kelly Tshibaka of Alaska, and JD Vance of Ohio, who are refusing as the vote approaches to commit to accept the decision of the polls if it is unfavorable to them. Tudor Dixon, in the race for governor of Michigan, and Geoff Diehl, who aspires to the same position in Massachusetts, expose the same uncertainty. All won their primary with the backing of ex-President Donald Trump, chief proponent of the conspiracy theory of voter fraud that dozens of lawsuits and dozens of recounts, including some carried out under the aegis of Republicans, have never succeeded in demonstrating.
“The United States is going through a difficult period for its democracy, drops on the other end of the line the former director of the Center on Democracy at Stanford University Larry Diamond, joined by The duty in California. The presence of these candidates who refuse to accept the outcome of the 2020 election and who discredit the electoral process in the United States should be of great concern to voters. In Nevada, even though no massive voter fraud was revealed in the last election, candidate for secretary of state Jim Marchant says he will accept the results of the vote only if the “elections [sont] own”. For the past two years, he has been a local spokesperson for conspiracy theories and, above all, for Donald Trump’s “big lie” about the alleged fraud committed in the context of the presidential election. If he wins, he will become the head of the electoral process in the state.
In neighboring Arizona, Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake said she would never have certified the vote electing Joe Biden in 2020 had she been governor at the time.
In Wisconsin, gubernatorial aspirant Tim Michels goes even further, saying he is “open” to the idea of “decertifying” the victory obtained by Joe Biden in 2020 in his state, even if there is no legal way to do it.
The stakes of the race
Given the high level of disapproval of Joe Biden’s work since the start of his term — 52% at the last measure — Republicans are hoping to turn this midterm ballot into an all-inclusive referendum election. of his work. And the climate is favorable to them, since 78% of voters have placed the economy at the top of their concerns, in a country hit hard, like others, by inflation and its sometimes dramatic consequences on household portfolios.
For former chairman of the National Economic Council of the United States Lawrence Kudlow, who rages regularly on the airwaves of Fox Business, Republicans must remind their constituents that “inflation began under Joe Biden” and that he must be held responsible.
Thursday, a CNBC All-America Economic poll was also blowing the wind in this direction, with 42% of Americans believing that the Republicans would be more effective in managing this inflation. They are only 27% to put their hope in the hands of the Democrats on this theme.
The price of gasoline at the pump, which tops $5 a gallon in Nevada after peaking at $7 in the summer, crime, endemic to the country, and border regulation of immigration also remain among the favorite topics of the Conservative candidates in the race.
In contrast, the Democrats have decided to capitalize on the attacks on abortion rights in the United States – attacks reinforced by the reversal this year of the judgment Roe v. wade by a strongly conservative Supreme Court — one of the driving forces behind their mobilization.
On Tuesday, during an event organized by the Democratic National Committee in Washington, Joe Biden also promised that the first law he would introduce, if his party retained the majority in Congress, would aim to include the protection of abortion. across the country, to put an end to these relentless attacks by the conservative camp on “the freedom to choose”.
The Democrats are also seeking to mobilize the vote of young people, those aged 18-29, who are generally more liberal and progressive, but whose participation in elections, although on the rise since 2016, remains lower than that of those aged 65 and over.
The signs of the seduction campaign are numerous. In early October, the White House trumpeted that it had fulfilled its promises by announcing a pardon for those federally convicted of simple possession of cannabis and initiating a process to decriminalize the substance.
This week, to much fanfare, Joe Biden launched a website allowing students to claim the cancellation of part of their student debt, for an amount of up to US$20,000. The measure announced in August is denounced by Republicans, who aspire to more cuts in social programs.
But more than anything, the US president called on the country’s youth on Tuesday to go to the polls in elections he says could define their lives for decades to come.
“We are facing an inflection point, one of those moments that does not occur in all generations,” he said to a group of students gathered in Washington. The decisions we make now will determine the future of our nation and the future of your generation for the next 30 years or more. »
The sequel will be written on November 8th.