STOCKHOLM | Finland and Sweden arrive at the time of choice for their probable candidacies for NATO, with an officialization expected in the coming days, at least on the Finnish side.
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Less than three months after the invasion of Ukraine, the two Nordic countries find themselves at the gates of the Western military alliance, in search of its security umbrella – in particular from the United States – in the face of the Russian threat.
“It is 100% sure that Finland is going to be a candidate, and quite likely that it will be a member by the end of the year,” Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of Sciences, told AFP. international affairs.
In Finland as in Sweden, the war initiated by Moscow in Ukraine completely overturned public opinion, which until then had been very divided.
According to a poll Monday by public television Yle, 76% of Finns are now in favor of joining NATO – a record – against barely 20-30% in recent years.
After weeks of intense domestic and international consultations, signs of an impending announcement have multiplied in recent days in both countries.
In Sweden, the ruling Social Democratic Party, whose green light would ensure a clear majority in parliament for membership, said it would announce its decision this Sunday. That is ten days earlier than initially planned.
Even if Stockholm is more hesitant than Helsinki, for Elisabeth Braw, expert in the defense of the Nordic countries at the American Enterprise Institute, Sweden will apply well and will do so “very probably” jointly with its neighbor.
Taken aback by Finland’s speed, Sweden – accustomed to weighing for a long time for the counterattack – also has an interest in keeping up with the times, also because the Russian army is struggling on the Ukrainian front.
“Perfect Timing”
“Before, the Swedish Social Democrats always said: + we will think about it when Finland joins +. But because they thought Finland would never join,” notes Ms. Braw.
“From a risk perspective, the timing is perfect. Russia is so busy elsewhere (in Ukraine) that it will be very hard for her to retaliate or respond militarily”, underlines the expert.
In Finland, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö is due to make public his “personal” position on the issue on Thursday. And that of Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic Party is expected by Saturday at the latest.
According to the daily Iltalehti, a key committee bringing together the two heads of the Finnish executive and ministers is to meet on Sunday to make the decision.
Asked by AFP, the Finnish government did not comment, stressing that the committee’s meeting dates were confidential.
A war advertised by Vladimir Putin as a response to NATO’s desire to expand eastward would therefore have the direct consequence of pushing two additional European countries to place themselves in the bosom of NATO.
Finland’s membership would also double NATO’s land border with Russia to around 2600 kilometres.
In recent weeks, multiple warnings from Moscow about the “political and military” consequences of membership, with the possible dispatch of reinforcements, including nuclear ones, to the Baltic Sea have rather had the effect of strengthening Swedish-Finnish determination. .
Exercises
On the Swedish island of Gotland, strategically positioned in the middle of the Baltic, reserve National Guard forces have been activated for a month and next week coincides with major annual military exercises in Finland and Sweden.
With 12,000 professional soldiers, but 21,000 conscripts a year and a wartime army of 280,000 soldiers, as well as very powerful artillery and sixty combat aircraft, Finland is a massive force for a country of only 5, 5 million inhabitants.
Even if the post-Cold War period was marked by major disinvestments and downsizing, Sweden also has a modern army that already meets the standards required by NATO, and an armaments industry peak.
Without being members so far, the two countries have already come a long way to leave their historical neutrality and move closer to the alliance, at least militarily.
“We are witnessing a major shift in opinion and from a political point of view, but militarily this is not the case, quite simply, because they are already very close to NATO”, underlines Ms. Braw.
“They are going to marry NATO after having lived in concubinage”, she notes.