The campaign of the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) was ultimately not as bad as claimed. Otherwise, she would not have collected 41% of the vote, even more than the 37% of 2018.
Posted at 1:28
Since Robert Bourassa, no prime minister had won two consecutive majority mandates. The CAQ lost a single seat, to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon in Camille-Laurin.
Perhaps the population is less passionate than you might think about the scouring of candidates’ Facebook accounts, awkward TikTok videos, non-consensual choice of adjectives and other peripheral controversies that mark election campaigns for the worse. and for the better.
Voters are more interested in the big picture. They got the impression that the CAQ stood up for nationalism, tried to plug the holes in health with a credible plan, had some economic competence and offered them fiscal respite. This is also a comment that I have often heard: the team has many candidates with the stuff to become ministers.
Even if Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois was solid in the debates, his platform still aroused mistrust. Even if Paul St-Pierre Plamondon stood out for his rigor and his loftiness, he remains caught in the constitutional impasse. And even if Dominique Anglade struggled to resurrect the Liberal Party, the red mark is still marred by cutbacks and ethical scandals.
Finally, there is Eric Duhaime. Thanks to him, the Conservative Party has made impressive progress. But going up so fast, he hit his head on the ceiling. Most of those who don’t vote for him would make him their last choice. His polarizing discourse makes him more of a force for protest than for change.
With 41% of the vote, the CAQ could have won any of the last six elections. But his triumph is swelled by the unwitting help of the opposition, which almost perfectly divided the vote.
When we analyze the result with a magnifying glass, disturbing details appear.
Together, the PQ and the Conservatives got nearly 29% of the vote. This earns them 2% of the seats.
The PQ received slightly more votes than the Liberals. The seats at the time of writing these lines: 3 for the Parti Québécois and 24 for the Liberal Party.
This democratic deficit should annoy Mr. Legault, gravedigger of the reform of the voting system.
His lead over his opponents is the largest since Robert Bourassa in 1985 and 1973. But in the 1980s, with bipartisanship, it was anticipated that the pendulum would swing back in the other direction. And in the 1970s, we witnessed a change of cycle with the National Union which was collapsing and the Parti Québécois which was preparing to replace it.
This time it’s different. A new era begins, that of the multiparty system. And more than ever, our voting system smells bad.
After two CAQ victories, we can indeed speak of a change of cycle.
With each generation, a new party reconfigures the political spectrum.
For that of the Great Depression and the post-war period, it was the National Union. For the Quiet Revolution, it was the Parti Québécois. The X had the Action Démocratique du Québec, but it died after rising too quickly in 2007. The CAQ replaced it, and it is solidifying its reign.
His arrival, however, is not attributable to the new generation. Rather, it is the result of baby boomers like François Legault who abandoned the dream of independence to take refuge in defensive nationalism. With theatrical demands in Ottawa that will, they know, lead to the usual failures and bitter compromises.
The CAQ retains Quebec social democracy with a managerial discourse and a penchant for marketing that targets “taxpayers”, one check at a time.
At the end of the campaign, Mr. Legault promised to “make room” for opposition. It was above all a way of saying: don’t be afraid, I won’t abuse my majority. He repeated it Monday night in his victory speech. His message, however, was not based on any concrete commitment.
Shortly after his election in 2018, he also promised to be humble and listen to people. But in recent weeks, he has attacked Montreal and intellectuals, among others. Moreover, we have rarely seen a party win with so few votes in the metropolis. And with his victory in Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue, he will feel that displeasing environmentalists does not harm him.
Mr. Legault’s first challenge will be to really reach out to his rivals and listen to their constructive criticism.
His second challenge will be to manage abundance. Many ambitious candidates were elected. To compose his council of ministers, the choice will be a real embarrassment. The dissatisfied will be numerous and Mr. Legault will have to find a way to occupy them.
Finally, its third challenge will be to give a more exciting meaning to its slogan “Let’s continue” in the face of the labor shortage, the risk of recession and the other pitfalls to come.
Politics is cruel. The CAQ will not be able to content itself with continuing. Because even the strongest impulses end up slowing down. And for a majority government too, the road can get bumpy.