Currently, Quebec’s two objectives — decarbonizing its economy and closing its wealth gap with Ontario — are not compatible, a study concludes. To reconcile the two, Quebec would have to reduce the quantity of its GHG emissions per dollar produced two and a half times faster than it has done for 30 years.
Quebec’s good environmental performance is often praised because, for example, it emits less greenhouse gas (GHG) per capita than Ontario. But if, today, it were to display the same gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as its neighbor, as it has promised to do by 2036, it would emit exactly the same quantity of GHGs per capita, and this, despite its privileged access to “clean and cheap electricity”, reports a study by the Quebec Institute which was to be unveiled on Wednesday.
We are used to presenting statistics on GDP growth or GHG emissions. We had not yet statistically crossed these two realities by establishing the carbon intensity of the Quebec economy, that is to say the quantity of GHGs per dollar of GDP, explain the authors of the report, Luc Belzile and Emna Braham .
However, we see that Quebec has reduced the “carbon intensity” of its economy by almost half (49%), bringing it from 337 tonnes per million dollars produced in 1990 to 172 t/M$ in 2022. Ontario did even better, reducing its own carbon intensity by 56% during the same period, bringing it almost exactly to the same level as Quebec, at 173 t/M$.
“Considerable challenge”
Thus, if Quebec had already achieved its other objective, which consists of catching up with Ontario in per capita wealth, it would have seen its GHG emissions not decrease, but increase to the same level as that of Ontarians, jumping from 9.2 tonnes to 10.6 tonnes per capita.
Nothing prevents us from thinking that Quebec will find ways to pursue its two objectives of wealth creation and decarbonization at the same time. But to achieve them, it will not be able to be satisfied with the current trend which promises another 16% reduction in the carbon intensity of its Quebec economy by 2030, but rather aim for a 42% reduction. “This is a considerable challenge,” observes the Institut du Québec. Especially since efforts to reduce carbon intensity become “more difficult and costly to provide as we approach the last tonnes of GHGs to be eliminated”.
These shocking and unprecedented data clearly illustrate the need, particularly for political decision-makers, to provide new performance indicators capable of highlighting the link between economic growth and the fight against global warming, note Luc Belzile and Emna Braham.
The fact that Quebec does not do better than Ontario, despite its abundant access to hydroelectric energy, while its neighbor depends on gas-fired power stations and nuclear energy, is largely due to the composition of its economy. The presence, for example, of a significant Quebec financial sector brings it considerable wealth which generates relatively little GHG.
Quebec composition
In their study, the two experts took the opportunity to look at the carbon intensity of 11 economic sectors responsible for 76% of GHG emissions from industries in Quebec and 57% of its total emissions.
They found areas that were moving in the right direction and others that were going backwards.
The wholesale trade and wood product manufacturing sectors are among the only ones to get closer to the government’s objectives, the latter having, for example, increased its contribution to GDP by 22% between 2009 and 2021, while reducing its GHG of 21%.
In many cases, such as construction, aluminum processing and agriculture, the wealth produced has increased more than GHG emissions.
And the exact opposite of what is desired, some sectors, including mining, cement and concrete as well as transport equipment, have shown an increase in their GHG emissions greater than that of their production. real.
“If Quebec wishes to reach the level of wealth of Ontario while becoming the first carbon-neutral state in North America, it will definitely have to better coordinate its public policies which affect both the economy and the climate challenge,” concludes the report. Report followed by three others by next summer, which will look at the means available to businesses and households to reduce their carbon intensity, as well as the help that public authorities could provide.