Often relegated to the background of the electoral campaign, the televised debate between the two vice-presidential candidates – JD Vance for the Republicans, Tim Walz for the Democrats – could be an exception this year. How ? By attracting more attention than usual, five weeks before the election, due to a race for the White House that is still very close.
Tuesday evening, from the New York studios of CBS, the two men will find themselves under pressure, during this first and only face-to-face meeting of the running mates, to convince the undecided and try to make a move to the advantage of their camp respective voting intention cursors. A delicate exercise for both…
Asymmetrical popularity
Ohio Senator JD Vance, Donald Trump’s notable choice as his running mate last July, arrives in New York with a little uphill climb. This is because, since his entry into the race, a negative feeling seems to be developing among voters who are following his campaign. A recent survey by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, carried out among 1,700 voters between September 12 and 16, indicated that more than half of them had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, approximately 10 points more only two months earlier.
Conversely, Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota, is viewed negatively by only three out of 10 voters. He is also more popular among Democrats — 70% judge him favorably — than JD Vance is among his own troops; the latter induces a favorable opinion among 60% of Republicans.
“Tim Walz could come into this debate with an advantage over JD Vance,” summarizes Christopher Lawrence, professor of political science at Central Georgia State University, joined in Macon in an interview. “Democrats appear to have been more effective in portraying Vance as a ‘weird’ candidate and pointing out his inconsistencies. The blows taken by the Republicans on Tim Walz, [notamment sur des exagérations sur son passé militaire et sur ses activités en Chine]had less resonance with the general public. »
The Trumpist running mate must also deal with an image of an opportunist fueled in part by his spectacular turnaround in the face of Donald Trump, whom he considered in 2016 as a threat to the country, before making him a hero and a savior in 2020 and 2024.
“He’s a liar, a hypocrite, an imposter,” summed up Connie Griffis a few weeks ago, a Democratic activist met in the village of Middletown, Ohio, cradle of the story of deep America Hillbilly Elegythrough which JD Vance has built his reputation in recent years. “He was against Donald Trump until he saw with him the possibility of becoming senator”… and now vice-president.
Slippery slopes
Telegenic and stylish, JD Vance is preparing to present a contrasting image with that of Tim Walz, who for his part likes to cultivate and expose his “normality” and his “ordinary” experience as an amateur sports coach and geography teacher in a public school in Mankato, Minnesota.
The Republican also risks being caught up in the field of ideas, particularly with the question of abortion, on which the Democratic camp has decided to bet heavily in the current campaign, in the name of “freedom” and “respect for rights” of women.
The subject places the Republicans at odds, those who boast of having put an end to the shutdown Roe v. Wade, which has protected access to this medical intervention since 1973, but without since offering a coherent message to the 67% of Americans who believe that abortion should not be illegal.
In August, JD Vance indicated that Donald Trump would veto a possible decision by Congress to ban abortion nationwide. During his televised debate with Kamala Harris, the former president did not confirm the matter, instead claiming not to have discussed it with his running mate. The latest Siena College survey conducted on behalf of the New York Times indicates that when it comes to abortion, 54% of voters have more confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to 39% for Donald Trump.
JD Vance also alienated part of the female electorate a few weeks ago, after the resurgence of a comment made in 2021 to media agitator Tucker Carlson about “childless cat ladies” — people unfit to make decisions influencing the destiny of American families, according to the vice-presidential candidate.
The Republican, on the other hand, risks attacking his opponent on the question of immigration, an area on which the American radical right dominates, including by exploiting imaginary stories and multiplying racist statements. It was JD Vance who injected into the public space the unfounded rumor that immigrants in a small town in Ohio were eating their neighbors’ pets. The insidious statement was echoed by Donald Trump during the September 10 presidential debate.
In the following days, on CNN, Vance admitted to lying, but added that if he had to “make up stories to get the American media to actually pay attention to the suffering of the people,” he would continue to do so.
Come out a little more from the shadows
Even though they were thrust into the spotlight this summer, JD Vance and Tim Walz remain political figures far better known in their home states than nationally. And Tuesday evening, while trying to defend the political programs of their camp, the two men will also have to demonstrate that, despite their role as second-in-command, they also have the skills required to replace the president in the event of an emergency. , as stipulated in the country’s Constitution.
“This is the most difficult task for JD Vance, who does not have the same political experience as Tim Walz to make the case that he is ready to take on the presidency,” says Professor Lawrence. An argument that is nevertheless necessary because of the age of Donald Trump, the oldest candidate in the race, and his “visible decline”, he adds.
The stakes are high for both politicians, even if, ultimately, it remains unlikely that this debate between the vice-presidential candidates will change “fundamentally the trajectory of the race,” says Tim Lynch, professor of political science at the University of St. Thomas, Minnesota.
“However, with the gaps still very narrow between the presidential candidates in several key states that will decide the outcome of the November election, both camps cannot afford to ignore the slightest opportunity to convince voters,” he adds.
What the debate on Tuesday evening will partly allow them to do.