(NEW YORK) Mission: Impossible. The title of the Hollywood franchise comes to mind when we think of the perilous challenge that awaits JD Vance on Tuesday evening during the only debate between the vice-presidential candidates. The suspense, if we can use that word in the circumstances, will rest on the ability of Donald Trump’s running mate to transform into the Tom Cruise of politics.
Zoom out: JD Vance, the man who denounced childless cat ladies, will appear at the CBS studios in New York, site of the debate, as the most unpopular vice presidential candidate since Sarah Palin, widely ridiculed running mate of John McCain in 2008.
Where to watch the vice presidential debate?
Hosted by CBS, the debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz will take place Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET. The event will be broadcast live on CBS and many other networks, including NBC, ABC, Fox, CNN, MSNBC and CBC News Network. ICI RDI and LCN will also present it, dubbed in French.
According to a poll recently published by NBC News, only 32% of American voters have a positive opinion of the Republican senator from Ohio, compared to 45% who have a negative opinion of him.
Christopher Devine, a political scientist at the University of Dayton in Ohio, confirms that this result and others like it make JD Vance an even less popular running mate than Sarah Palin was when she accused Barack Obama to “friend” terrorists.
“And that’s really bad for a vice-presidential candidate,” says this author of three books on vice-presidential candidates, including Do Running Mates Matter? (Do running mates count?).
For his part, Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ running mate, is relatively popular. According to the NBC News poll, 40% of voters view him favorably, compared to 33% who dislike him.
PHOTO DUSTIN FRANZ, THE WASHINGTON POST ARCHIVES
Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz
Hence this observation: the running mate duel will be less important for Tim Walz than for JD Vance.
If Tim Walz, during this debate, doesn’t change what people think of him, he will still be in a good position, because he is quite popular. JD Vance, on the other hand, has a problem. Overall, he is not viewed favorably by the American people.
Christopher Devine, political scientist at the University of Dayton, Ohio
According to the specialist, Donald Trump’s running mate will therefore have to take advantage of the confrontation moderated by journalists Norah O’Donnell and Margaret Brennan to try to change the way he is perceived by voters. Perception to which Tim Walz contributed by using the word “weird” to describe JD Vance.
“There are a lot of jokes about him trying to prove that he’s a normal human being,” Christopher Devine said. He struggles to answer easy questions about why people would want to have a beer with him. He needs to present himself as a nice person. »
Under Trump’s eyes
Where the challenge becomes perilous is that JD Vance must accomplish this goal while meeting Donald Trump’s expectations.
PHOTO HANNAH BEIER, REUTERS
The Republican vice-presidential nominee must not only impress at the running mate debate, but also satisfy former President Donald Trump’s expectations.
“We know that Donald Trump values in all of his staff, and especially in his vice presidential nominee, someone who is willing to take the fight to the other side. And I think Donald Trump would be disappointed if JD Vance went too far in trying to prove that he is a nice, kind human being,” says Christopher Devine.
And to add:
JD Vance needs to, on one hand, attack Tim Walz and satisfy Donald Trump and, on the other hand, make arguments against the opposition without coming across as a jerk, which many people think he already is. That’s the challenge. And I don’t think he’ll be able to pull it off.
Christopher Devine, political scientist at the University of Dayton, Ohio
But the New York debate will perhaps reveal a JD Vance capable of triumphing in the most critical situations, like Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible.
Secondary attraction
In the meantime, we must put the importance of the debate into perspective. Typically, running duels attract fewer viewers than presidential debates, with the 2008 showdown between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin being a notable exception.
They can provide viral moments or memorable clips, like this reply from Texas Democratic Senator Lloyd Bentsen to Indiana Republican Senator Dan Quayle, who had just compared his career to that of John Kennedy, during their 1988 debate: “ Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was my friend. Senator, you’re not a Jack Kennedy. »
PHOTO RON EDMONDS, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
The running mates of the 1988 presidential election, during the debate between them: the Democratic senator of Texas Lloyd Bentsen and the Republican senator of Indiana Dan Quayle
Senator Bentsen’s performance obviously did not weigh heavily in the balance. A month later, George Bush Sr. beat Michael Dukakis.
“Typically, vice-presidential debates are secondary attractions to the main event, which is the choice between the presidential candidates,” says Christopher Devine.
Which does not mean that the choice of a running mate does not matter in a presidential election. In 2008, for example, there is no doubt that Sarah Palin harmed John McCain. According to Christopher Devine, the Arizona senator lost voters who did not forgive him for choosing as his running mate someone who was not ready to take office.
This is what we call the vice-presidential candidate indirect effect. According to our research, the importance of the running mate lies mainly in the image it conveys of the presidential candidate.
Christopher Devine, political scientist at the University of Dayton, Ohio
In the current campaign, it is obvious that Donald Trump’s strategists would have done without the controversies surrounding JD Vance’s statements on childless women.
It is less certain that they disapprove of JD Vance’s false statements about Haitian migrants eating pets in Springfield, Ohio.
These two subjects will be on the agenda for this debate where JD Vance will have to accomplish a mission which will perhaps prove impossible.