It is a report that aims to bring science into the political discussions that are underway at COP27, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The lighting of scientists on climate change is not very encouraging: it shows the reality of global warming and its accelerating effects. This document called 10 New Perspectives in Climate Science [en anglais] gather this which has been published in the economic, social and medical field for almost two years.
#ClimateScience must inform #policy – this year’s #10ClimateInsights offers research trends and implications for decision makers, compiled by 65 leading scientists.
Full report: https://t.co/6x2yHYupHp @wcrp @TheEarthLeague #COP27 #TogetherForImplementation pic.twitter.com/w5JhdX2zjm— Future Earth (@FutureEarth) November 10, 2022
One of the first things that emerges from the document is that the battle for adaptation is already lost, especially for the most vulnerable populations. The effects of adapting to climate change are limited, scientists say. And it will become more and more complicated to deal with global warming when temperatures have increased by 1.5°C, that is to say within 9 years if emissions continue at the same rate. And nothing will of course work out once it reaches 2°C.
There are also already red zones on the planet. Today, one and a half billion people live in extremely vulnerable sectors, in which mortality is 15 times higher than in the least affected sectors. According to the report, the number of vulnerable people will double by 2050. The areas concerned are Central America, Asia, the Middle East and a large part of Africa. In these areas, biodiversity is disappearing, especially in Latin America, and the habitat is threatened.
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As a result of the proliferation of these vulnerable sectors, which will become uninhabitable, migration is expected to multiply between now and 2050. Beyond 1.5°C of warming, there could be more than 90 million internally displaced people in sub-Saharan Africa. -Saharan.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that almost 40% of heat-related deaths worldwide are the consequence of global warming. Lfectious diseases will increase, transmitted by water and other vectors. Scientists are also warning about the impact of global warming on wildlife. Fires and heat waves also have negative consequences on the overall health of wild animals. Ditto for flora, because its health depends on our food security, according to the report.
According to the report, while climate change does not create conflicts, it exacerbates existing tensions. Scientists give the example of the melting ice in the Arctic, which has enabled several countries to develop their military capacity there and to take advantage of new maritime transport routes, causing concern for the international community. On another ground, the war in Ukraine has, according to the report, revealed “significant problems with food supply and access to energy” both locally and internationally. So many vulnerabilities “which damage security” globally, according to scientists.
In conclusion, the various sciences show that we must change the system, knowing that the acceleration of the effects of climate change over the past year has surprised many climatologists.