When will we know who carried out the attack?
According to Benjamin Toubol, doctoral student in political science at Laval University, it is possible that new details on the strike will emerge in the coming hours, particularly with Joe Biden’s visit to Israel. “Biden’s visit serves as confirmation of Americans’ so-called unwavering support for Israel. The United States could demand greater transparency about what happened,” he says. Marc Imbeault, professor in the humanities and social sciences department at the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean, fears, however, that information on who is responsible for the attack is scarce. “In the current context, it is probably not even possible to carry out an investigation,” he said. Typically, in war contexts, it can take months of extensive searches, interrogations and physical evidence to determine who carried out an attack, he explains. “Then sometimes you never even know exactly what happened. »
Does this strike risk changing the nature of the conflict?
Professor Marc Imbeault judges that the conflict could temporarily worsen because of the attack. “But the situation is already so serious, so whether we attack a hospital or not, I don’t think it fundamentally changes the situation,” he said. The Gaza Strip is home to more than 2 million people, and by bombing this region, sooner or later, places such as hospitals, homes, civilians, elderly people and children will be affected, he explains .
Could the attack delay the ground invasion of Gaza?
It’s possible, believes political science doctoral student Benjamin Toubol. “There may be pressure from the US administration to try to sort out fact from fiction before a ground operation. If this is the case, it could be in Israel’s interest to delay its operation,” he said. Christian Leuprecht, professor of political science at the Royal Military College of Canada and Queen’s University in Ontario, also believes that the events could encourage Israel to rethink an invasion of Gaza, where the risks of collateral damage are “unpredictable and serious “.
Why would Israel target a hospital?
“The objective could be to target the headquarters of Hamas or Islamic Jihad, which hide in the basements of hospitals to use the population as a human shield,” believes Benjamin Toubol. However, he judges that it would not be in Israel’s interest to target such a target the day before the arrival of the American president. “If Israel is indeed responsible for this attack, it could increase support for the Gaza Strip among Arab countries and Western public opinion,” he said.
Is the theory that it was a Hamas or Islamic Jihad shot plausible?
Yes, believes Professor Marc Imbeault. “When we are in a war situation, when tension is very high, it has happened in the past that belligerents hit their own population to try to incriminate the enemy. They can try any tactic, even the most immoral ones. » Benjamin Toubol believes, however, that it would not be in the interest of Hamas or Islamic Jihad to target a hospital on its own territory. “The vast majority of them are civilians and potentially injured Hamas or Islamic Jihad fighters. I don’t see their point in targeting a building like that,” he said. It does not matter whether it is Israel, Hamas or Islamic Jihad which is responsible for the attack, he risks charges of war crimes, specifies the specialist.
Could the attack be accidental?
This is not excluded, indicates Professor Marc Imbeault. “Modern weapons are precise, but they are not infallible. It has happened in past years, for example during the war in Afghanistan, that allied troops were struck. Even in contemporary conflicts, shells sometimes hit our own troops, and these are accidents. »
With Louise Leduc, The Press