The “zero day”. In Prime Minister Legault’s office, this is how we get into the habit of baptizing each day. Because the days go by and are not alike.
Every morning feels like a blank sheet of paper. It is not known what new immunological studies or hospital screenings will cause the previous day’s plan to be sent to the recycling bin.
The fight against COVID-19 is an eternal restart. He humiliates the proud. But after more than 21 months in a pandemic, you get used to it.
According to an old military adage, no plan survives the first encounter with the enemy. Or, as Mike Tyson put it more concretely, “Everyone has a plan before the first punch in the face. “
This time, the blow is indeed frontal. It comes from a new variant, Omicron. At least twice as contagious as the Delta variant, which itself was more contagious than the original strain.
According to the most recent estimate from the Laboratoire de santé publique du Québec, it accounts for 20% of cases in the province. But the Quebec crisis unit fears that this rate is underestimated. And anyway, no matter what the current percentage is, it’s going to increase.
True, all this was rather predictable Monday when Mr. Legault was still talking about private gatherings of 20 people for Christmas.
But the next day was, once again, “day zero”. And Quebec had in hand the all new projections of the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services. The number of cases was skyrocketing and hospitalizations were likely to follow the same trend. So better brake before it was too late.
Given this sense of urgency, it is difficult to understand why the measures will not take effect until Monday. But hey, just because an activity is allowed doesn’t mean it’s recommended. It is still possible to use common sense. And it is this imperfect weapon that we will have to trust.
Since March 2020, the same criticisms return after the announcements of Quebec and Ottawa. Confused! Contradictory ! Complicated !
But with the passage of time, they nevertheless become very simple. You have to get vaccinated. Wear the mask. Reduce his contacts. And get tested if you have symptoms, then isolate yourself while waiting for the results.
Experts – real scientists – have lamented authorities’ reluctance to recognize aerosol contamination, ventilate classrooms in schools and distribute rapid tests. For the first two elements, I saw nothing in the announcement of Thursday evening that could reassure them. But for the rest, the message is easy to understand.
As the D saidr Horacio Arruda, national director of public health for Quebec, the pandemic is entering a phase of “self-management”.
The government of course has its responsibilities. He must speed up screening and screening and pilot the rest of the health liner – the very one whose fragility is the source of health restrictions.
Quebec must also change the rules if the public interest so requires. According to Public Health, this involves a break for dancing and karaoke, and a reduced capacity for theaters, restaurants, bars, shops and places of worship. And finally, by home gatherings not exceeding 10 people.
The police will not show up in the houses, and that is obviously good.
However, this implies that people will have to discipline themselves.
Will they do it?
Basically, an individual can obey for three reasons: if he fears a sanction, if he approves the measure or if he recognizes the legitimacy of the state to demand it.
Unfortunately, the rebellious minority that refuses to be vaccinated – the one that is 15 times more likely to be infected – is also the one least likely to comply with the measures.
It is difficult to legislate against human nature. Still, it would be possible to make States more moral by making up for the scandalous delay in poor countries in terms of vaccination. This is also what feeds the variants and makes the pandemic so unpredictable.
Quebec’s delay for the third dose may come as a surprise. Like other provinces, Ontario already offers it to all adults.
The Minister of Health, Christian Dubé, assures us that it is not because of a lack of vaccinators. The reason: We have stretched the interval between the first and second dose, and it changes the calculation as to what an acceptable wait time to receive a third.
I leave this debate to the experts. But regardless of their answer, one fact remains: in Quebec as in Ontario, cases are climbing and we must crush the curve.
On Thursday, Mr. Legault hinted that other measures could come. A return to curfew or containment is extremely unlikely. Everything will also be done to keep primary schools open – distance education is laborious, especially for young people in difficulty.
However, home gatherings or commercial and cultural activities could be tightened again.
When ? How? ‘Or’ What ? We will have to check tomorrow morning, then the next day, every zero day. For that, the government will have to be good. But human nature will also have to improve its reliability rating.