Iran has vowed to respond to the Israeli strike in Damascus that killed two of its generals and five other officers, including Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a leader of the elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel would be punished for the attack.
Israel’s military spokesperson told CNN that the building struck in Damascus was not an Iranian consulate, as Tehran claims, but a Revolutionary Guard Corps building “disguised as a civilian building.”
A dangerous escalation
This strike is an escalation in the undeclared war that Israel and Iran have been waging for decades and of which Lebanon and Syria are the main theater of operations.
Hezbollah, Iran’s armed wing in Lebanon, also promised “punishment and revenge” to Israel. Military analysts Steven Erlanger and Richard Oppel describe it as the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, “a militia trained like an army and equipped like a state.”
- Listen to the Lester-Durocher meeting with Journal de Montréal blogger Normand Lester via QUB :
With this strike, Benjamin Netanyahu probably tried to restore his image while the demonstrations calling for his resignation intensify: his war is bogged down in Gaza while around a hundred Israelis are still held hostage by Hamas and Israel has alienated world public opinion – including that of the United States.
By approving such an attack to eliminate a top Iranian military leader, Netanyahu took the risk of provoking widespread conflict in the Middle East.
Never two without three
When Israel entered Lebanon in the early 1980s, there was no Hezbollah. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak acknowledges that it was the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon that led to the creation of the “Party of God”.
Since then, Hezbollah has fought two wars with Israel. The first, which lasted 15 years between 1985 and 2000, resulted in a unilateral withdrawal by Israel. A victory, of sorts, for Hezbollah.
The second, in July 2006, initiated by Hezbollah, lasted 33 days. The Shiite group demonstrates its increased operational capabilities derived from Iranian military supplies and training. The conflict ended, according to analysts, in a draw.
Towards the third confrontation
Since October 7, a low-intensity conflict has opposed the two antagonists. The current clashes between Israel and Hezbollah – artillery and rocket fire and cross-border airstrikes – could quickly escalate into a conflict involving ground units and deep airstrikes.
- Listen to the Lester-Durocher meeting with Journal de Montréal blogger Normand Lester via QUB :
The exchanges of fire gradually intensified. As of mid-February, the number of rocket attacks from southern Lebanon – around 100 rockets per day – is not far from the 2006 average, which was around 120 per day, according to the Prime Minister.r Omar Ashour, a specialist in military matters from the University of Doha in Qatar.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, says his group currently has 100,000 fighters. Jane’s Defense Weekly estimates its strength at 40,000. It would have some 65,000 rockets and missiles, some with a range of more than 200 kilometers that could reach Tel Aviv with a 600 kilogram warhead.
A massive Hezbollah attack would force Israel to redeploy combat units from Gaza to its northern border and could also lead Netanyahu to consider a retaliatory strike directly against Iran.