Barely eight months after his electoral defeat, former far-right Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro risks ineligibility: he is on trial from Thursday in a trial that could deprive him of the 2026 ballot.
The former head of state (2019-2022) is being prosecuted by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for attacking electoral justice and having criticized, without proof, the reliability of electronic voting, a few months before the elections. elections won by his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
During a speech in July 2022 at the presidential palace, he declared before European diplomats that he wanted to “correct flaws” in the electoral system and asked for the “transparency” of the vote.
“We have time to solve the problem, with the participation of the armed forces,” he said, accompanying his speech, broadcast live by public television, with a PowerPoint presentation.
For these remarks, Mr. Bolsonaro, 68, could be declared “ineligible” for public office for eight years. The prosecution is prosecuting him for “abuse of political power and improper use of the means of communication”.
The far-right leader had attacked without the slightest material proof electronic voting, a well-known system in Brazil since the Latin American giant has been using it for more than 20 years.
Throughout his campaign, he had waved the risk of fraud, stoking the anger of his most radical supporters who, on January 8, just days after Lula took office, attacked the seats of the executive, legislative and judiciary in Brasília. Scenes of riots and ransacking in the heart of Brazilian democracy, which shocked the world.
If the court does not render its decision by Thursday, as seems likely, the deliberations can continue on June 27 and 29. Even beyond.
According to a judicial source contacted by AFP, the file is so damning for Mr. Bolsonaro that the question is above all to know “how many votes against” will be issued among the seven judges.
“Martyr”?
This legal meeting is fraught with challenges for the Bolsonarist camp as well.
In the event of ineligibility, the Brazilian right, which represents about half of the voters, could fracture, according to analysts.
Mr. Bolsonaro had gathered more than 58 million votes in the second round of 2022 and lost with only 1.8% difference against Lula. Conservative parties still dominate Congress.
“The risk of division in the camp of the right and the far right exists, because there is no natural presidential candidate, heir to Bolsonaro”, comments Leandro Consentino, professor at the Insper Institute in Sao Paulo.
The former president, who returned to Brazil at the end of March after a stay in the United States that began even before Lula’s inauguration, has publicly admitted the possibility of a legal setback.
“No one is going to change the way we act […]. We know how justice is in Brazil. Whatever happens, we are preparing with great pride to look for alternatives,” he said last week at a ceremony of his Liberal Party (PL).
The ex-leader is not at the end of his troubles. He faces about fifteen procedures before the electoral court.
He is also targeted by the Supreme Court in five cases, including that of the January 8 attacks, and faces prison sentences.
Mr. Bolsonaro could file an appeal after a possible conviction by the Superior Electoral Court, according to the Insper professor, who however considers his chances of success low.
According to him, in the event of failure, he could be tempted to present himself as a “martyr”: “Bolsonaro will try to hold captive his toughest base of supporters by ensuring that he is the victim of political persecution”.
After two terms (2003-2010), Lula was re-elected as president at the end of 2022 after spending 18 months in prison between 2018 and 2019 for corruption, before being released by the Supreme Court.