The recent rise in the price of oil in the wake of the war in Ukraine gives wings to the growing use of cultivated land for purposes other than that of feeding populations, in particular to produce biofuels, denounces a world body. If current trends continue, only 29% of cropland on the planet will be used to directly feed humans by 2030.
In a recent report, the World Resources Institute (WRI) denounces this major trend which could mean that, within seven years, humanity will produce 30% fewer calories than what is required to feed all the inhabitants of the Earth.
In 1960, half of the cultivated land was used for the direct local food of the populations, against 37% today, affirms the WRI. The rest (63%) goes to animal feed, exports (part of which is also used for food), processing and various industries (textiles, pharmaceuticals, etc.), in particular that of conventional biofuels. However, the war in Ukraine has recently restored the image of these non-fossil fuels.
Fuel or food?
Indeed, several countries, including India, Brazil and Indonesia, have just inflated the share of biofuels (based on corn, soya or palm oil) required in gasoline. In the United States, 30% of corn production is already directed to ethanol plants and 30 million tons of soybeans will be harvested in 2023 to meet the increased demand for biodiesel.
Indonesia has just increased to 35% the mandatory share of biofuel – made there with palm oil – in diesel. However, this culture has often been implicated in the deforestation of tropical forests.
In Brazil, where ethanol exports to Europe have tripled in 2022, 15% of biofuels will be required from April in gasoline to counter the surge in oil prices. Investors are now describing this country as the “Saudi Arabia” of biofuels, due to the huge potential for producing fuels made from sugarcane, corn and soybeans.
These recent decisions favor the conversion of land for purposes other than food, but also the risks of deforestation, in particular of the Amazonian forest, believe several scientists. The potential of certain biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is increasingly disputed, notably by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which, in a report in 2019, warned of the risks of desertification, land degradation and food insecurity that these crops could pose.
An American study carried out on the effectiveness of the national policy of 2005 favoring the use of ethanol to reduce the country’s GHG emissions concludes that it has missed its objective. And this, because it has increased the use of gasoline tractors, fertilizers, and promoted the deterioration or conversion of environments that were previously carbon sinks. Many countries are moving away from “agrofuels” produced from edible plants in favor of those from agricultural, forestry or waste residues.
In Quebec ?
In Quebec, 15% of corn grown goes to ethanol production and about 82% of corn and soybean production is used for animal feed, says Patrick Mundler, professor at the Faculty of Agriculture and food from Laval University. It’s not so much the demand for ethanol as our agricultural model, focused on animal husbandry and export, that explains the ubiquity of these non-food crops here, he says. . “Quebec will never be able to achieve food self-sufficiency, but it would benefit from diversifying its agriculture if it wants more autonomy. For those who believe in a real ecological transition, the production of biofuel [à base de maïs] isn’t part of the equation either,” he says.
Nadine Bachand, senior agriculture analyst at Équiterre, is concerned about this global trend that contributes to the fact that 83% of cultivated land on the planet is used for animal feed, but only provides 18% in return. calories consumed by mankind.
Farmland could feed Quebecers more “efficiently”, she thinks. “We have nothing against the consumption of meat, but the government encourages the use of land for purposes other than human food. These other cultures are first perceived as market opportunities to be seized,” she says.
Change of direction
Current global crops are expected to be enough to feed all of humanity, yet 750 million people still suffer from hunger, says the World Resources Institute. And that’s because the agricultural area used for animal feed, export and other products has jumped 77% since 1960.
“The demand for meat, dairy products and processed foods, which is growing in countries where the rich and middle classes are growing, explains this situation, as well as the policies favorable to other crops, in particular biofuels”, supports the Institute.
This major trend will make it impossible to reach the food security targets set for 2030 by the United Nations, believe the authors of a global study on the evolution of agricultural land published in the scientific journal Nature.
Joined by The duty, the study’s lead author, Deepak Rae, a researcher at the University of Minnesota’s Institute for the Environment, fears the current energy crisis is accelerating this trend. “As countries try to be more self-sufficient in the short term, they risk diverting their crops to biofuel production,” he says.
Both the demand for ethanol (and other biofuels) and globalization contribute to the current imbalance, believes Deepak Rae. “To avoid a food crisis, we should increase the productivity of crops intended for human consumption, by investing in research,” he says. To reduce the use of oil without harming food security, we must instead improve energy efficiency and focus on renewable energies. But it takes a lot of political determination and investment. »