(Kiev) Ukraine called on Sunday to be wary of “apocalyptic forecasts” by judging that the chances of finding a “diplomatic solution” with Moscow remained “considerably higher” than that of a military “escalation”, after American warnings of a possible full-scale Russian invasion.
Posted at 10:02
Updated at 7:06 p.m.
“Do not trust doomsday predictions,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kouleba wrote on Twitter.
“Ukraine has a powerful army, unprecedented international support” and “is ready for any development”, he assured. “It is up to the enemy to be afraid of us. »
In the same vein, Mykhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, estimated on Sunday that “the chances of finding a diplomatic solution” to the crisis remained “considerably higher than the threat of a new escalation”, in written comments submitted to AFP by the press service of the presidency.
These statements come shortly after US Intelligence warned that Russia already has 70% of the force necessary for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and may have sufficient capabilities, 150,000 men, to launch an offensive in two weeks, according to US officials.
Kiev is trying to put the risk of an imminent Russian attack into perspective, in particular to protect its fragile economy, still weakened by the risk of an invasion.
According to American officials, who have informed elected members of Congress and European partners in recent days, Intelligence has not established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but that he wanted to give itself all the possible options, from the partial invasion of the separatist enclave of Donbass to the total invasion.
If the Kremlin chooses the more drastic option, it could surround Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, these officials say.
The conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause an influx of one to five million refugees, mainly to Poland, according to the same source.
“Psychological Pressure”
The first contingents of American soldiers arrived in Poland on Saturday and Sunday, where American President Joe Biden has decided to send reinforcements to defend the NATO countries “against any aggression”, in the midst of a diplomatic ballet aimed at convincing Moscow to withdraw its massed troops to the borders of Ukraine.
The United States, which has deployed 3,000 military reinforcements in Europe, did not send these troops “to start a war” against Russia in Ukraine, assured Sunday the adviser of the White House for national security, Jake Sullivan.
Russia denies any hint of invasion, saying it only wants to guarantee its security. Moscow also announced joint “military maneuvers” with Belarus, where it massed several battalions north of Kiev and in the Brest region, not far from the Polish border.
Yet, according to US intelligence findings, Russia continues to amass a sizable military base around Ukraine.
Two weeks ago, 60 army battalions were positioned in the north, east and south of Ukraine, including in Crimea annexed by Moscow in 2014. On Friday, there were 80 and 14 others are in transit from the rest of Russia, including Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.
Some 1,500 Russian special forces troops arrived in the Ukraine border area a week ago, as a large Russian naval force assembled in the Black Sea, including five amphibious vehicles.
Russia has been massing troops on the Ukrainian border “since last spring”, but to “perform psychological pressure” it is carrying out “massive rotations”, observed Mr. Podoliak.
Washington’s warning comes as French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, travels to Moscow on Monday and Kyiv the next day to try to defuse the crisis.
Mr Macron spoke again on Sunday with his American counterpart Joe Biden as part of his consultations before meeting Vladimir Putin, the French presidency announced.
“The leaders discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, and affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” he said. the White House said in a statement.