Israel-Gaza conflict, war in Ukraine, threat of Chinese invasion of Taiwan: despite an increasingly tense global context, it is inevitable that “cracks” in the unity of NATO members will begin to appear, believes Kerry Buck, former Canadian Ambassador to the North Atlantic Council (NATO).
The latter spoke during a panel as part of the Ottawa Conference on Security and Defense on Thursday. The veteran diplomat names disagreements between allies, the US presidential elections and spending gaps between countries as the biggest threats to the Alliance.
This year, 18 out of 31 NATO countries will reach the target of 2% of GDP in military spending. NATO has not yet released the list of countries that have reached the 2% target, but Germany has indicated that it will be part of it this year, and France next year.
Conversely, some allies, like Canada, still have “a long way to go,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said last month.
In 2023, Canada spent approximately 1.38% of its GDP on defense in 2023, far behind several countries.
In 2014, NATO Heads of State and Government agreed that each Ally would devote 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, helping to ensure that operational readiness remains assured at Alliance-wide. For NATO, compliance with the 2% rule is an important indicator, which “signals the political will” of each Ally to contribute to the collective defense effort.
Also present at the conference, Canada’s Minister of National Defense Bill Blair did not want to comment on how to achieve NATO targets.
“Our government has already committed to reaching 2%, but this is going to require a significant increase in spending and, frankly, I think we are a little limited in our ability to make these financial commitments given the current fiscal situation” explained Minister Blair, admitting however that Canada needed to do more.
All the experts present at the discussion also considered that it is essential for Canada to invest more in defense in the current global context.
“As well as ensuring our defense base is strong, we need to think now about our individual strengths that can contribute to the overall effort. Let’s identify our strengths and where we can fill our gaps. “, said Heidi Hulan, assistant deputy minister of international security at Global Affairs Canada.
“Real” divisions
Without naming Donald Trump, former ambassador Kerry Buck also noted that the degree of US commitment to alliances “may not be as predictable” as it has been since the alliance’s inception.
Last month, Donald Trump said he would no longer guarantee the protection of member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization from Russia if they did not pay their share. He would even “encourage” Moscow to attack them. This declaration created a shock wave in Europe.
Mr. Trump has often criticized NATO allies for failing to meet their military spending commitments in the past. The United States remains by far the largest contributor to the cumulative military spending of NATO countries.
“The preservation of the transatlantic alliance is often seen as a question of who will win the next elections in the United States, but it is not only that,” nuanced Heidi Hulan of Global Affairs Canada.
“It is also about real divisions which have unfortunately emerged on the major issues of the moment and our determination to resolve them cooperatively or not.”
Over the past year, growing tensions have emerged among NATO powers in particular over the level of support to be given to Ukraine.