The study, conducted by the insurer Axa Climate, lists several consequences of the climate crisis in the coming decades.
“All of France is affected. At different levels and by different perils, but there is no spared zone.” The presentation of Christelle Castet is not reassuring. This head of the scientific team of Axa Climate, a subsidiary of the insurance company, coordinated the realization of a study published Thursday, July 6 and devoted to adaptation to climate change. This ten-page document details some of the impacts of the phenomenon caused by man at the local level, while the subject is of increasing interest to the insurance sector.
In 2022, the consequences of global warming cost them 2.9 billion euros, according to the High Council for the Climate (PDF). The Ax Climate study establishes forecasts for 2050 (compared to the period 1985-2014) based on the most extreme scenario presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) in its latest report. “When we talk about adaptation, it is better to have a more pessimistic view, to be ready to face stronger constraints”justifies Christelle Castet.
On the agricultural level, the study thus predicts a drop in corn yields of around 25% and the loss of a quarter of French production of white sugar from the cultivation of sugar beet in France. “In 2050, half of the fruit production areas will be impacted by strong or extreme climatic risks (droughts, floods, storms, etc.), i.e. twice as much as normal”adds the Axa Climate study.
“We must act now”
In the leisure sector, Axa Climate reports, for example, that the sea level will be 20 to 25 cm higher on the Opal Coast, located in Picardy. “Deauville’s Promenade des Planches is 20cm below the high tide line that could be reached with the combinations of sea level rise, high tides and storm surges”, illustrates the study. In the mountains, the Avoriaz 1800 resort should also close for three additional weeks, due to lack of snow. As for the fire risk season, it will be “three times longer than today in the Landes”already seriously affected in 2022, and the number of large fires in the south-east of France will increase from 7 to 12 per year.
Finally, the study also focuses on housing. While 40% of the seaside resort of Lacanau (Gironde) is threatened by rising waters, “the majority of commercial activities of the municipality, a hundred professional premises and various public infrastructures” would be affected.
“In 2050, 48% of metropolitan France – representing nearly 10.4 million individual houses built today – is likely to be impacted by the phenomenon of shrinkage-swelling of clay leading to cracks and damage.”
Axa Climatein his study
The rise in temperatures would also lead to a 77% increase in days above 24°C in Montpellier, and a 26% drop in days below 10°C in Strasbourg, reducing the need for heating. Faced with all these risks, “we must act now”, therefore calls Christelle Castet. A statement shared by the High Council for the Climate, which called in particular in its last report “to engage the means necessary to enhance action for adaptation”.