COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to climb in this seventh wave. But could they be on the verge of “stabilizing” or reaching a plateau? This is suggested by new projections, supported by experts, who nevertheless warn that caution is still required with the arrival of new variants.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
“We can think that it will soon stabilize. But we know it: with this virus, we have to assume that we never know what will happen. Everything can change suddenly. No one predicted that we would have a wave in the middle of summer, ”says the Dr André Veillette, researcher at the Montreal Clinical Research Institute (IRCM).
On Wednesday, in new models, the National Institute for Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) said it expected “a relative stabilization in the number of new hospitalizations” in the next two weeks. The number of hospital admissions linked to the virus would reach “around 160 per day”.
The Institute also plans “stabilization of regular beds occupied by COVID patients”. This number would be “between levels 3 and 4 defined by the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MSSS)”. In intensive care, the government body also plans “a stabilization of the beds occupied by COVID patients”, which would remain “well below level 1 of the MSSS”, the lowest of the levels.
For now, however, all the indicators related to the disease remain on the rise in Quebec. Wastewater analysis also points to an increase in cases of COVID-19 in most major cities in Quebec. That said, PCR test results by age group suggest that the 7e wave could soon peak. Indeed, the cases seem to have peaked among Quebecers under the age of 60. On the other hand, the trend is still clearly on the rise among people aged 60 and over, who are more vulnerable and therefore more at risk of being hospitalized. Public Health will provide an update on the COVID-19 situation this Thursday.
An “unpredictable” virus and variants
According to André Veillette, “the reality is that it has to go down again before it goes up again”. “That said, the uncertainty is that it is not guaranteed either that the next wave will be in the fall. Can we have it by the end of August? The virus at the moment is really very unpredictable, ”he says in stride.
Infectious disease specialist at the Jewish General Hospital, the Dr Matthew Ooughton second. “Reaching a plateau in the near horizon is certainly possible, but only if there are no transmission factors such as super-spreading events that break the trend. Projections are valuable tools, but they are never 100% certain,” he adds.
Figures updated by the National Institute of Public Health show that the BA.5 variant – which now accounts for two-thirds of infections in the United States – accounted for more than 40% of COVID-19 cases in Quebec. at the end of June. Its little brother, BA.4, affects about 16% of infections, while the BA.2.12.1 strain – which had so far caused the increase in cases in Quebec – is in decline, and now accounts for 28% of cases. of infection.
A new emerging variant, BA2.75, nicknamed Centaur, has also already been detected in around ten countries. First reported in India, it has since popped up in Canada, Australia, Japan, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. So far, there have been four cases in Canada, but none in Quebec.
“Little is known about BA2.75,” the Netherlands Institute for Public Health and the Environment said on Wednesday, adding that it “appears to be able to more easily circumvent the defense built against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. through small specific changes”.
Beyond each of the variants, their multiplication means that the risk of reinfection is “very real”, notes Matthew Oughton. “We now know that reinfections can cause hospitalizations or more severe infections. We must be aware of this in the current landscape, ”he raises, recommending that the most vulnerable – including the oldest and the chronically ill – wear a mask during large gatherings, even outside.
Increase in hospitalizations and cases
The 11 new deaths reported on Wednesday brought the daily average calculated over seven days to 11. The trend is up 44% over one week. Quebec also reported an increase of 104 hospitalizations on Wednesday. The 1,767 people currently hospitalized represent an increase of 18% over one week. In intensive care, the 43 patients represent an increase of 8% over one week. As for them, the 2164 new cases reported on Wednesday brought the daily average to 1591. The trend is thus up 20% over one week. Finally, the vaccination campaign continues to progress. Quebec administers an average of 9,500 doses per day. These are mainly people aged 60 and over coming to pick up their fourth dose. To date, 83.6% of Quebecers have received two doses, but only 52.7% three and 15.1% four.
Pierre-Andre NormandinThe Press