On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported for the first time several cases of a mysterious pneumonia in Wuhan, a hitherto uneventful city in central China. Two years later, the virus continues to wreak havoc around the world, and no one wants to risk predicting when the pandemic will end. At the time of assessments at the same date next year, will we still be at the same point? And in two years? Will we ever get out of it?
“A year ago to the day, if I had been asked the same question, I would have said that in the summer of 2021, it would be over thanks to the vaccine. But we have to admit that everyone who has made predictions so far is wrong. So I no longer dare to step forward, ”replied immediately the doctor specializing in microbiology and infectious diseases, Amir Khadir.
There will indeed be an end to the permanent state of crisis which has lasted for almost two years, assures the former solidarity member, returned to medicine after leaving active politics. No one is fooled: the virus is here for a while, but the Dr Khadir is convinced that one day there will be a switch from the pandemic to the endemic.
Much hope is placed these days in the Omicron variant, which is much more contagious, but considerably less severe, according to some studies conducted abroad. However, Amir Khadir cuts short these pious wishes in this passage of the new year, by affirming that the endemic so desired is still very far from what one observes presently.
“To have an endemic level, it would have to spread much more slowly. At the moment, even though there is a small fraction of people who need to go to the hospital, the network is still overwhelmed, with so many cases. Those who compare it to influenza have no idea what it usually is. Influenza, in the worst years, we talk about a few hundred, at most a few thousand cases per day, ”explains the infectious disease specialist-microbiologist at the Pierre-Le Gardeur hospital, on the North Shore.
Would certain decisions have made it possible to avoid this feeling of going back in time? Maybe, but the Dr Khadir refuses to throw stones at anyone, aware that governments are sailing on sight with this virus that is unlike any other.
After realizing, however, that vaccination was not a panacea, he became convinced that developed countries had to better redistribute vaccines elsewhere in the world. Otherwise a new variant is always at risk of emerging from less vaccinated corners of the world.
“We must hear François Legault remind the Canadian government that without a planetary effort, we will never get out of this. We have a duty to have a plan, not only for Quebec and Canada, but for the whole world, ”argues the ex-politician.
Transition year
Virologist Benoit Barbeau is less categorical about how to get out of this crisis. That it has lasted for two years, moreover, hardly surprises him, the Spanish flu having after all spread from 1918 to 1921.
“In 2020 and 2021, we got to know the virus. 2022 will be a year of transition. With Omicron, which brings natural immunity to the population, with the arrival of vaccines more suited to new variants, with the arrival of treatments too, we could switch to a mode which is more endemic during the year ” , sees the professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at UQAM.
It is however much too early to claim victory, warns Benoit Barbeau: “There is nothing to say that another variant will not take the place of Omicron and that this one will materialize in more hospitalizations. Usually viruses mutate to become more contagious and less dangerous, but it is still too early to tell if Omicron is going with this. “
Unique moment in history
And above all, this would not be the first time that COVID-19 has foiled the forecasts for the past two years, even if it means shaking certain scientific certainties. Because the pandemic we are going through is unlike any other. Of course, there was the Spanish flu, but the latter was characterized in Quebec by a major wave, followed by two jolts. Another major difference: the “Grim Reaper” was more deadly, and many of the victims were children.
On the other hand, the Spanish flu has never resulted in the implementation of exceptional measures like the one Quebecers have undergone for two years, adds Denis Goulet, specialist in the history of medicine and associate professor at the Faculty of Medicine of the ‘Montreal university.
“During the Spanish flu, stores shortened their opening hours, nothing more. Some healthcare workers did not even wear masks. There is no period in the history of Quebec that can be compared to the one we are going through, ”underlines Mr. Goulet, who has a hard time predicting what Quebec will look like after the pandemic.