Although only 1% of COVID-19 infections require hospitalization, the speed at which the Omicron variant is spreading could fill hospitals with more than 2,000 patients, including nearly 400 in intensive care.
• Read also: Government’s web-based screening platform down for half a day
• Read also: Quebec reports 14,188 new cases
At the very least, this is what suggests the most recent models unveiled Thursday by the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS), which is based on the cases of COVID-19 officially detected until December 27.
According to the models examined by INESSS, 1,600 to 2,100 patients infected with the virus should end up in hospital beds within three weeks. The intensive care occupancy rate is expected to vary between 300 and 375 occupied beds, exceeding the level of previous waves of COVID-19.
An outdated model?
However, it is quite possible that these levels will be exceeded. Quebec already has 939 hospitalizations as of Thursday, a number that has climbed to 237 occupied beds in just 48 hours.
Intensive care is also starting to feel the effects of the Omicron wave with 138 patients as of Thursday, 16 more than the day before.
The pessimistic scenario presented by INESSS is based on raw data of COVID-19 cases identified in the province. However, as of December 27, Quebec had “only” 8,231 new cases, a number that increased by about 75% to reach 14,188 infections on Thursday.
“The data […] could be underestimated due to the underreporting of infected cases. This underreporting can in particular be explained by the high traffic observed recently in screening centers and the use of rapid tests, the results of which are not captured in the databases ”, moreover recognized INESSS in presenting his models.