What many experts have been seeing coming for a few days now is now confirmed: the sixth wave of COVID-19 has officially begun in Quebec, according to the National Institute of Public Health (INSPQ).
Posted at 4:07 p.m.
“We sent a message this morning to the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MSSS) to say that yes, we now consider that we are officially in a sixth wave”, explains the epidemiologist doctor of the Institute, Dr.r Gaston DeSerres.
A few days ago, last Sunday, the National Director of Public Health, Dr.r Luc Boileau, remained cautious in his remarks, affirming that Quebec “is on the way to a sixth wave”, without however naming him precisely. He then assured that no new health restrictions would be imposed for the time being.
But from the start of the week, several INSPQ researchers came together to confirm that the trend of a sixth wave was very real. “This sixth wave, we were waiting for it. In our projections which were made a few weeks ago, we already saw a wave which was going to be more or less marked according to the intensity of the contacts of the population, following the relaxation of the measures. What is happening sticks quite well to what we anticipated, ”summarizes the Dr De Serres on this subject.
Everything indicates that this sixth wave is the work of BA.2, this sub-line of the Omicron variant, which now represents two-thirds of new cases of COVID-19 in Quebec.
Earlier, on Wednesday, the National Institute for Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS), predicted in new models that “for the first time since the peak of the fifth wave (mid-January), the number of new hospitalizations is up (18%) compared to the previous week (527 versus 447)”, in all age groups and all regions.
According to the organization, an increase in the number of new hospitalizations “to about 200 per day” is to be expected in the next two weeks, with a confidence interval between 167 and 230. The number of regular beds occupied by COVID patients would be thus between levels 3 and 4 defined by the Ministry of Health and Social Services (MSSS). In intensive care, we would rather reach about 50% of level 1 defined by the MSSS.
Quebec reported 3,067 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, bringing the daily average calculated over seven days to 2,207. We have to go back to February 4 to surpass the bar of 3,000 infections in Quebec. The trend is currently up 65% over a week. These figures are however less representative due to the limits in access to PCR screening tests, imposed for several weeks now.