After a resurgence in 2021, births have fallen sharply since the start of the year in Quebec, as in France or even in China. And the pandemic does not explain everything.
In total, 84,900 babies were born in Quebec in 2021, an increase of 4% compared to the previous year (82,000). Thus, 2021 saw the number of births return to the level observed before the pandemic, can we read in the 2022 edition of the Demographic report of Quebec published Thursday by the Statistical Institute of Quebec.
This assessment indicates in passing that “the preliminary data for the first months of 2022 suggest that the number of births could be lower than that of the pre-pandemic years”.
In fact, by observing the months of January to September alone (since we do not yet have the data for October and November 2022), we observe that the number of births during these first nine months of the year is at its lowest since 2010.
A predictable ricochet
According to Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the Statistical Institute of Quebec, this significant drop is undoubtedly linked to the fact that couples rarely have babies two years in a row.
However, the year 2021 has really been a big year for births in Quebec.
In 2021, we even exceeded Alberta’s fertility level, which is historically higher than ours.
Frédéric Fleury-Payeur, demographer at the Statistical Institute of Quebec
But other factors undoubtedly come into play. In 2021, immigration resumed, the number of holders of permanent resident status increased, “which is often associated with the start of family projects”, notes Mr. Fleury -Payer.
The pandemic and its yo-yo effect on births
In the study The decline, then the boom? Birth and Fertility in the Time of COVID, demographer Tomas Sobotka and a European team of researchers explored the issue. They note that several highly developed countries “have recorded an increase in the number of births compared to pre-COVID”. The phenomenon was particularly marked in the Nordic countries, in Western Europe, as well as in New Zealand, Israel, Quebec and, to a lesser extent, in the United States.
“The initial shock of the pandemic was reflected in a decline in births in several countries, with the largest trough occurring in January 2021,” it read.
“Then, birth rates rose surprisingly quickly in March 2021, in line with conceptions coinciding with the end of the first wave of the pandemic. Most countries then reported stability or a small increase in the number of births in the months that followed, particularly in the fall of 2021.
“But a further slowdown in births and fertility rates is recorded from January to April 2022.”
And now inflation and war
As in Quebec, 2021 has been a big year in France in terms of births. In the midst of a pandemic, they were on the rise, after declines recorded in the last six years.
However, there too, like here, everything goes down again in 2022. According to INSEE (the French equivalent of Statistics Canada), 1940 babies were born on average every day in France in October 2022.
This is the most notable low since those of 1975 and 1993, two years “during which France suffered major economic crises”, noted the demographer Didier Breton, of the National Institute for Demographic Studies, quoted in the French newspaper The cross.
In The ParisianDidier Breton recalled how, “a bit like the stock market, couples hate uncertainty, whether health or economic”.
French demographers are monitoring the extent to which economic uncertainty in Europe or the war in Ukraine and the fears that it will have repercussions abroad can influence or continue to influence the desire for procreation.
The impact of inflation and tight family budgets as well as the repercussions of the war in Ukraine are also mentioned in Tomas Sobotka’s study.
Note that for Canada, Statistics Canada does not transmit birth data by month for 2022.
Meanwhile, in China
In China – the most populous country in the world – the birth rate was the lowest recorded since 1978.
This obviously comes against the backdrop of a pandemic, but comes as a surprise given that China has relaxed its birth control policy in recent years.
PHOTO ANDY WONG, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
Children play as their parents watch at a playground in Beijing, China, in May 2021.
China’s birth rate was 7.52 births per 1,000 people in 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It was 8.52 per 1000 in 2020.
This is the lowest level since at least 1978, when the Asian giant began publishing its annual statistics report.
China has relaxed its birth control policy in recent years. It allowed couples to have two children from 2016, then three since last year.
According to what Agence France-Presse reported in August, “couples are cooled by the rising cost of living, housing and especially the education of children”.
With Agence France-Presse