As infections linked to the Omicron variant skyrocket across the globe, South Africa’s most urbanized province of Gauteng is instead seeing a drop in its daily COVID-19 cases. Could this be a harbinger that the wave led by the new variant will subside faster than the previous ones?
While the current data are encouraging, several caveats must be taken into account before comparing the future of the epidemiological situation in Quebec and that of South Africa, underlines Dr Alain Lamarre, professor and researcher in immunology and virology at the National Institute for Scientific Research (INRS).
New infections have already peaked in Gauteng, one of the first places in the world where the Omicron variant has surfaced, according to preliminary data. After counting 16,000 new infections on December 12, Gauteng only reported around 3,300 on Tuesday, even though 90% of new infections since mid-November are attributable to the Omicron variant. Three more of South Africa’s nine provinces also reported declines.
Across the country, the situation is improving just as much: the toll fell to 15,423 new infections on Wednesday, after peaking at nearly 24,000 new cases across the country last Thursday.
In the face of this decline, scientists from the National Institute of Communicable Diseases of South Africa (NICD) said that although more studies were needed, the data showed a “positive story” about the new, extremely contagious variant.
However, it is better to be extra careful before getting carried away, warns Dr.r Lamarre. The demographic realities of Quebec and South Africa are, from the outset, very different: South Africa has a fairly young population, with a median age of 27.6 years, compared to 42.7 years. in Quebec.
“The most important thing is that in South Africa, it’s the start of summer. People are outdoors, in conditions that, like us in our summers, are not conducive to the spread of respiratory viruses. This may explain the short duration of their epidemic peak, ”adds the researcher.
The DD Groome, of the NICD, also warned that some of the results with declining case numbers could be due to lower levels of testing during the holiday period.
In order to establish more realistic comparisons, Quebec could refer to the situation of Great Britain, believes the Dr Lamarre. “We will have to wait a little longer to see if it will also decrease in Great Britain, because after South Africa, it is surely where the epidemic was the fastest with the Omicron”.
As in Quebec, Great Britain shatters records of cases of infections since the arrival of the Omicron variant. It surpassed 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The number of new cases has increased by nearly 60% in the past week, according to government data.
Hope and Precautions
After a fourth wave of significant cases in November, several countries, such as the Netherlands, Belgium or Austria, are now seeing the number of new cases of COVID-19 decline. Despite its progress in the various territories, the new variant does not, for the moment, cause new heights.
“The fact that they had a bigger Delta peak, and therefore a very important fourth wave, it forced them to be very aggressive in their public health measures”, explains Dr Lamarre. Austria had notably imposed a lockdown on unvaccinated citizens in mid-November.
“A lot of rather draconian measures have been taken in these countries, which could explain why the Omicron is less established. This is good news in itself, it means that the preventive measures are working, ”he adds.
Despite the new contamination in decline, containment has been in force since Sunday in the Netherlands. The strict measure, which includes the closure of non-essential businesses, restaurants, hair salons and gyms is expected to last until January 14.
The Austrian government has also not waited for a rise in cases to tighten health measures, even after registering the lowest number of new daily cases since October.
As of Monday, travelers must show proof of vaccination or recovery to enter the country. In addition, two doses of vaccine are no longer considered sufficient to enter: travelers must either avail themselves of a third dose or a PCR test.
With Reuters