COVID-19 in Quebec | Variants that evolve, but remain under control

The portrait of the predominant variants is changing in Quebec, but remains so far in the “Omicron family”, which gives hope that transmission will remain stable, experts believe. If the situation shows a downward trend in the number of cases, it will however be necessary to ensure close monitoring of the strains of the virus over the coming months.

Henri Ouellette-Vezina
The Press

Alice Girard-Bosse
The Press

“I don’t think we need to worry too much. There’s a good chance that these new subvariants won’t cause a major change. They will probably remain at the same level of virulence, ”explains virologist Benoit Barbeau, professor in the department of biological sciences at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM).

If BA.2 remains the main sub-variant circulating in Quebec, representing a little more than one in three cases, the strains of the virus that come from it are however taking up more and more space in the province, show new data. from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ). According to INSPQ figures, BA.2.12.1, BA.2.3 and BA.2.9 – new strains emanating from BA.2 – together now represent half of the cases in Quebec (51%).

For Mr. Barbeau, these new strains do not show particularly worrying signs. “We won’t see transformations as strong as the transition we saw between BA.1 and BA.2, for example. It may be more subtle, ”he notes.

“But at the moment, the situation is really holding up with a very specific Omicron base around the world,” explains the expert.

Constant changes

BA.2 made its appearance in Quebec at the end of January, but it was in March that it became the main variant circulating in the province. His arrival helped fuel the sixth wave, which has affected Quebec in recent weeks.

For Alex Carignan, microbiologist-infectiologist, epidemiologist and professor at the University of Sherbrooke, these new variants prove that the COVID-19 virus is constantly mutating and “that it will always continue to do so”. But there’s no need to worry, he says.

The situation becomes worrying when a variant has the capacity to supplant a predominant variant, according to his statements. “If we look, for example, in South Africa, there is a replacement of the BA.2 variant by BA.4 and BA.5, so these, in these cases, are variants that are worth ‘be watched’, he illustrates.

In the United States, a slight rebound in the infection seems to be linked to BA.2.12.1, says Mr. Carignan. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to have a rebound in Quebec as well,” he said. Indeed, the time of year could be beneficial to us. “Generally, in the months of May and June, the conditions are less favorable for the virus. “But since it seems to have an increased transmission capacity compared to the BA.2 variant, it is still to be monitored, concludes the expert.