Covid-19, flu, bronchiolitis… Should we be worried about the increase in cases before the holidays?

In a context of increasing cases of Covid-19, flu and respiratory viruses, Public Health France recalls the importance of barrier gestures and vaccination to enjoy family reunions.

They don’t need an invitation to show up on New Year’s Eve. Covid-19, flu, bronchiolitis… Winter respiratory viruses are making a comeback, as the school holidays loom. To the point of making the situation tense in hospitals and forcing the Grand Est Regional Health Agency, Thursday, December 14, to activate the white plan in Alsatian hospitals. A means for establishment directors to deprogram operations considered non-urgent and to requisition staff. As Christmas and New Year approach, synonymous with family reunions, should we be worried?

“The situation is not as critical as in 2020 and 2021, because the general level of immunity of the population is greater today”notes epidemiologist Yves Buisson, while urging caution. “But this better level of immunity does not apply to older, immunocompromised people and pregnant women, who are more likely to develop serious forms”he continues, recommending that all people who will be in contact with people at risk during the holidays be vaccinated against the flu and Covid-19.

“We must remember that visiting elderly people during the holidays really requires being careful”, insisted Isabelle Parent, epidemiologist at the Public Health France agency, during a press conference on Wednesday. Because Alsace is not the only region in difficulty.

The peak of bronchiolitis soon to be reached?

Regarding bronchiolitis, this respiratory infection which affects infants and can, in the most serious cases, require hospitalization, the whole of France is still in an epidemic phase, notes Public Health France in its weekly bulletin. And if the health authorities notice a “decrease in syndromic indicators”they emphasize that they remain “at a level that remains consistently high”.

Thus, among children under 2 years old, the public health agency recorded 7,045 visits to the emergency room for bronchiolitis and 2,187 hospitalizations. Nevertheless, “a peak is emerging, to be confirmed in the following weeks”, according to epidemiologist Nicolas Méthy. In a conference, the scientist from Public Health France also mentioned “a level reached which is lower than that of the previous season”during which the triple epidemic of flu, Covid-19 and bronchiolitis was particularly virulent.

A JN.1 variant which revives Covid-19

If the figures are reassuring for the youngest, they are less so for Covid-19, flu, respiratory viruses and rhinoviruses. In its latest epidemiological bulletin, Public Health France reports an increase in cases, both in community medicine and in hospitals. For example, more than 4,350 weekly visits for suspected Covid-19 have been recorded, followed by more than 1,820 hospitalizations.

“The indicators are quite suggestive of this active circulation of the virus”confirms Vincent Enouf, deputy director of the National Reference Center for Respiratory Infection Viruses at the Pasteur Institute, in Le Figaro. The fault lies with a new variant called JN.1. “Due to new mutations, it is possible that it is less well recognized by our immune system, which could explain its predominance”continues Vincent Enouf.

“We are in an intermediate phase, not yet endemic like seasonal flu”, explains infectious disease specialist Xavier Lescure to AFP. As for the flu, the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region entered the epidemic phase this week and the Occitanie, Hauts-de-France and Pays de la Loire regions entered the pre-epidemic phase. still according to Public Health France. Overseas, Mayotte is still in the epidemic phase and Guyana has been placed in the pre-epidemic phase and Reunion in the post-epidemic phase.

Vaccinations are difficult

“In this context and with the approach of the end-of-year holiday gatherings, it is important that people at risk protect themselves by resorting to vaccination against seasonal flu and Covid-19 and that everyone continues to adopt barrier gestures”, such as wearing a mask in the event of symptoms in busy places and in the presence of vulnerable people, recalls Public Health France. It must be said that the vaccination campaign launched this fall is struggling.

And this despite the possibility of being vaccinated at the same time against Covid-19 and the flu. Only 25.6% of those aged 65 and over have received their injection against Covid-19, and less than a third (32.4%) against the flu, again according to Santé Publique France. However, 51.2% of them did so in 2022-2023, according to the Ministry of Health (PDF), which is still far from the 75% recommended by the World Health Organization. To the point that even the Minister of Health, Aurélien Rousseau, called for “a rebound in vaccination” For “have a good holiday”.

The same goes for wearing a mask. Failing to be vaccinated, Yves Buisson recommends, as family reunions approach, “to wear a mask in enclosed places, such as transport or department stores”. “It’s not a big effort though.”he adds, “but I see that not many of us do it.” “In France, we have not yet adopted this barrier gesture which is essential”, regretted Caroline Semaille, Director General of Public Health France. IndeedAccording to a survey by the health agency carried out in September, barely more than one in two French people (54%) consider it necessary to wear a mask if they have symptoms such as a cough or fever.