coups d’etat and a long-awaited civil power

Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso. These three West African countries have experienced four coups in less than two years. Alarmed by this instability and the risk of contagion in the region, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is trying to accelerate the democratic transition thanks in particular to coercive measures.

Fewer sanctions in Mali

Mali has experienced two military coups since August 2020. The latest came in May 2021 with promises of change. And yet, the overall situation has not really improved. It remains marked by a moribund peace agreement, political differences and a serious security crisis. In this context, ECOWAS has been active for months to safeguard the democratic system and accelerate the return of civilians to the head of the country. Thanks to the negotiations, some progress has been made with the announcement by the junta of an electoral timetable. Bamako has adopted a new electoral law and plans a presidential election in February 2024. One question remains: that of the possible candidacy of a soldier for the presidency. But the progress made has made it possible the lifting of trade and financial sanctions that weighed on Mali. The country nevertheless remains suspended from the authorities of ECOWAS.

Pressure on Guinea

Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who has ruled Guinea since September 2021, has promised the restoration of civilian power. A “transition charter” put in place by the junta specifies the conditions. Thus, the actors of the transition, whether military or civilian, do not have the right to stand in the next national or local elections. Only the duration of the transition, set at three years by Conakry, was deemed too long by ECOWAS, which is maintaining the pressure. The West African organization insists on a transitional period of 24 months maximum. Mediation should make it possible to reach this deadline and avoid heavy sanctions as in Mali.

A shorter transition in Burkina

Negotiations with Burkina Faso have reduced the transition period announced by the junta. We go from three to two years. Theoretically, the return to constitutional order is scheduled for July 2024. Of course, there remains the question of elections and their organization in a country in which more than 40% of the territory is beyond state control, according to official figures. Burkina Faso has been caught in a spiral of violence since 2015, attributed to armed jihadist movements affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, which have left thousands dead and 1.9 million displaced. The coup d’etat carried out in January 2022 was justified by the urgency of restoring security. But in Burkina as in Mali, the situation has not improved.