The reserve colonel estimates that it will take Ukrainian forces three times superior to Russian forces for their spring counter-offensive to be victorious.
“The losses will be very heavy for the Ukrainians”feared, Thursday, May 4 on franceinfo, Pierre Servent, honorary reserve colonel and specialist in defense issues, while a counter-offensive by kyiv against the Russians seems imminent. “It’s a decisive meeting for the Ukrainians”, he explained. Sabotage operations and recent drone attacks by Ukrainian forces resemble “to preparations for an offensive”according to him.
franceinfo: Sabotage operations and Ukrainian drone attacks herald an offensive by kyiv?
Peter Servent: It looks like preparations for an offensive. It may also be decoy operations to maintain psychological pressure on Russia for an operation which may take place later in the coming weeks. But it is certain that Ukraine will not be able to postpone its famous offensive for too long, both for weather reasons and because at some point it will have to go into contact and fight.
“In an offensive, you have several stages, like in a rocket. The first stage is hitting the adversary’s communications centers, their fuel stocks, their supply lines.”
Pierre Servent, specialist in defense issueson franfo
This is what we have seen for a few days, especially last week, with the rather spectacular strike on Sevastopol which normally should be extremely protected. In fact, it was not because we had these drone attacks on fuel centers for the Russian navy in Sevastopol in Crimea. It may look like the first stage of the rocket.
Afterwards, there are other levels that we don’t see for the moment, namely cyberattacks to make the Russian command deaf and blind, partisan operations in the rear of the Russian forces. It may look like some of the attacks we see, but it needs to be bigger. Then afterwards you have the real offensive with the launching of artillery strikes, air strikes if the Ukrainians can and decoy operations, that is to say operations which are intended to deceive the Russians and to maintain pressure.
The Russian army dug in. What are the chances of the Ukrainian army?
It will be a difficulty for the Ukrainian offensive. They have built 850 km of front line several lines of protection with minefields, dragon’s teeth, that is to say concrete blocks which make it more difficult for tanks to advance, places which are bunkered, zigzag trench systems. There is really a particular difficulty for the Ukrainians on the front line. There are still many uncertainties. When will it be triggered, where, how? One attack, two attacks on the front line or more?
There is one certainty, it is that this offensive will be very deadly for the Ukrainians because they will find themselves in an offensive position and the Russians in a defensive position. In this case, the one who is on the offensive must put about three times as many soldiers as there are in front to really hope to win. The losses will be very heavy for the Ukrainians. This is a decisive meeting for the Ukrainians in the weeks or months to come.
Moscow has denounced an assassination attempt by Ukrainians against Vladimir Putin. Does that sound believable to you?
The idea that President Putin was targeted is utterly preposterous. Everyone knows, Ukrainians too, that President Putin does not sleep in the Kremlin, but the strike took place around 2 a.m. The Kremlin is a considerable territorial influence, which represents more than one hectare of land. It would take a rain of bunker bombs, to hope to kill anyone inside.
What are the hypotheses to explain this attack?
We can put three hypotheses on the table with great caution given the very incomplete elements we have: possibly a special operation by the Ukrainians, but certainly not from the 500 km that separate Ukraine. The drone seems too small and besides, when we see the explosion, we can see that its charge is low.
However, the drones with which the Ukrainians, at the end of last year, struck strategic air bases 400, 500, 600 km away in Russian territory, were drones of large size and above all with large explosive charges . That doesn’t seem to be the case through the footage we’ve seen. It may be a special operation by a Ukrainian secret agent with local accomplices nearby, a few tens of kilometers from the Kremlin, to symbolically strike the place of power a few days before the May 9 celebrations.
Second hypothesis, an attack under a false flag. The Russians are mounting this operation to bring the country together, perhaps to try to strengthen conscription or take more radical measures in Ukraine, but at a psychological cost. The Russians are sending the message that they are unable to intercept drones in an area that is normally hyper-secure. Third hypothesis: the internal battles within the Russian powers, in particular vis-à-vis the extremists, the so-called Bolshevik nationalist red strands.