Could this legal deadline thwart Marine Le Pen’s presidential ambitions?

The MP risks ten years in prison and an additional penalty of ten years of ineligibility. In the event of conviction, the legal remedies could, however, allow him to run in the 2027 presidential election.

She plans to attend as much of his trial as possible. Marine Le Pen appears from Monday September 30 before the Paris judicial court alongside 24 other people in the case of the European parliamentary assistants of the National Front. The leader of the deputies of the far-right party (which became the National Rally in June 2018) is on trial for embezzlement of public funds and complicity in embezzlement of public funds. She faces ten years in prison, a fine of up to one million euros and an additional penalty of ten years of ineligibility.

The debates, and especially the decision, expected in early 2025, promise to be closely followed due to the political stakes of this judicial deadline, which takes place a little less than three years before the next presidential election. A conviction could in fact thwart Marine Le Pen’s Elysian ambitions. And this, even if the prospect of a prison sentence, which would send the candidate behind bars before 2027, seems unlikely.

In the case of the European parliamentary assistants of the MoDem, the judgment of which was rendered in January, all the sentences were suspended, including those of ineligibility. It is this additional penalty which is in reality the most feared. “In this type of case, we more often fear additional penalties, such as professional ban and deprivation of civil rights, than the main penalties”observes Jean-Marie Brigant, lecturer in private law and criminal sciences.

Can Marine Le Pen hope for a release like the one pronounced, “for the benefit of the doubt”for François Bayrou? Their situation is difficult to compare. While the centrist leader was only prosecuted for complicity, Marine Le Pen is also targeted for embezzlement as a former MEP. Between 2009 and 2016, she benefited from the services of four parliamentary assistants, employed by the European Parliament, but, according to the prosecution, “actually employed within” of the FN. Enough to expose him to an increased risk of conviction.

The embezzlement denounced is also not of the same magnitude. At the end of the trial of the MoDem parliamentary assistants, the court justified the fact of pronouncing suspended sentences of ineligibility by “the absence of characterization of a system, given the moderate number of misused contracts”. In the case of the National Front, the investigating judges insist on the “systemic nature of the diversions”of which Marine Le Pen is presented as “one of the main culprits”.

The objective, according to the magistrates, was to achieve substantial salary savings for the party, then heavily in debt. The amounts involved are therefore much higher. The total damage calculated by the European Parliament is 6.8 million euros in the FN case, compared to 293,000 euros in that of the MoDem.

If, unlike François Bayrou, Marine Le Pen is found guilty and sentenced to an additional sentence of ineligibility, she can always hope that this will be suspended. In this case, there is no problem running for the next presidential election, unless you are convicted of a new offense of the same nature within the time limit set by the court. An unlikely scenario.

If the triple candidate for the Elysée receives a firm sentence of ineligibility, the remedies, from appeal to cassation, should also allow her to overcome the electoral deadline of spring 2027. As long as the conviction is not final, the sentence is not carried out, because appeals are suspensive. “The risk, for Marine Le Pen, is that the judicial timetable will be accelerated, a bit like in the Fillon affair, with the electoral context”however, warns law professor Jean-Marie Brigant. He nevertheless points out the incompressible delays of justice, not aligned with the political agenda.

“The electoral rhythm and the judicial rhythm are not synchronized, it is the independence of justice.”

Jean-Marie Brigant, lecturer in private law

at franceinfo

For a conviction of Marine Le Pen to truly impact the electoral calendar, the court would have to order the provisional execution of the sentence of ineligibility, lasting at least two years. In this case, appeals are not suspensive. “Provisional execution is a formidable weapon, used more and more against elected officials” in cases of breach of probity, continues Jean-Marie Brigant. But this measure “must meet the general interest objective and prevent recidivism”recalls the specialist. “Unless there is a desire to set an example, I am not sure that this applies to Marine Le Pen, because she is no longer an MEP”he notes.

“In France, there is little chance that justice will go as far as provisional execution and that the sentence will be immediate”agrees Erwan Lecœur, sociologist and political scientist specializing in the far right. Apart from the risk of ineligibility, could a conviction cost Marine Le Pen votes? Nothing is less certain, “French public opinion is less and less pro-European”underlines Erwan Lecœur.

“This may weaken her image a little among the general public but this affair has so far never posed a problem within her electorate. It even makes her appear as a sort of victim of Europe and the European elites. ”

Erwan Lecœur, political scientist specializing in the far right

at franceinfo

This is also the line of defense claimed by the party and those around Marine Le Pen. As Jean-Philippe Tanguy, RN deputy for the Somme, explained on franceinfo, after the acquittal of François Bayrou, this procedure initiated by Brussels would target “anti-system parties” For “vile political motives”. “I cannot say that it is a political trial, because we have confidence in our judges, but it is a trial of political origin”adds Alexandre Varaut, former RN lawyer who has become party spokesperson on this issue since he was elected MEP.

According to him, Marine Le Pen “is convinced that the explanations” provided during the debates “will help her relax”. As for what comes next, “it is only up to the French, to the voters, to say what their political future will be and no one else”. The trial is scheduled to last until November 27.


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