Could the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalate and spread elsewhere in the region? Experts are taking stock of the issue at a time when exchanges of fire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip are increasing tensions in certain neighboring countries.
“I don’t believe at all that it is a certainty that the conflict will expand beyond Israel and the Gaza Strip, but it is entirely possible, and it is a scenario that is extremely worrying,” says Thomas Juneau, associate professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, in an interview with Duty.
As of Sunday, the Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, claimed responsibility for firing artillery shells and guided missiles into Israel. The country quickly responded by killing three fighters from this organization considered terrorist by Canada and the European Union. Hezbollah has since claimed daily fire from Lebanon on Israeli targets. Some shots were also reported from Syria.
“If Hezbollah really enters this war, which is not the case at the moment, it would be extremely threatening for Israel,” notes Mr. Juneau, who notes that this Lebanese group is clearly “more dangerous than Hamas” because of its vast military arsenal. “Israel’s response would be devastating, therefore, the damage to Lebanon would be incalculable,” continues the expert, who notes that militias in Syria and Yemen, in particular, could then join the conflict.
Thomas Juneau, however, foresees that the “balance of terror” between these two forces could convince them not to go to war.
“There is nothing to be optimistic about”
According to professor in the sociology department of the University of Quebec in Montreal and specialist in conflicts in the Middle East, Rachad Antonius, by imposing a complete siege on the Gaza Strip on Monday prohibited by international law, Israel laid the foundations for an “escalation” of the conflict elsewhere in the region.
The Palestinian enclave is currently deprived of its usual supplies of water, electricity and medicine, among other things. Electricity was cut in Gaza on Wednesday afternoon after the only power station there stopped working. “It’s a way to really completely expel the Palestinians, but I think they’re going to resist leaving. And as the punishment will be very great against civilians, there is a strong probability that the intensity of the conflict will increase,” foresees Mr. Antonius.
The latter also believes that this conflict could harm the ongoing process of normalization of relations between Israel, Saudi Arabia and other oil monarchies in the region. “This war will make the rapprochement with Israel more complicated” of these countries traditionally allied to Palestine, continues the expert.
A call for diplomacy
Egypt, for its part, “wants nothing to do with getting involved in this conflict”, believes Thomas Juneau, in particular because the country does not wish to welcome a wave of refugees from the Gaza Strip, which has 2 .3 million inhabitants. As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 263,000 residents of the Palestinian territory had been forced to flee their homes due to bombing from Israel.
“Egypt’s objective is a ceasefire, and not a complete resolution of the conflict,” continues Mr. Juneau. An analysis shared by Rachad Antonius. “The mediation will be strictly for an armistice, a de-escalation, perhaps for an exchange of prisoners,” he says. “We are far from real political mediation, because Israel does not feel obliged to really negotiate with the Palestinians. »
Israel in fact has a military force significantly greater than that of Hamas, in addition to counting on “unwavering support” from the West, primarily the United States. “The Palestinians don’t have any of that. So, Israel does not feel very motivated to discuss,” says Mr. Antonius.
“The saddest thing in all of this is really the lack of Western nuance, of recognizing that there are legitimate demands on both sides, that there are no easy solutions, but that we have to work for something that is legitimate on both sides,” notes Professor Stefan Winter, from the Department of History at the University of Quebec in Montreal.
To achieve a resolution to this conflict, countries like Canada will have to encourage Israel to negotiate seriously with Hamas rather than simply going on the offensive, believes Mr. Winter. “There are real problems to which only diplomacy can provide solutions – or at least hopes of solutions,” he concludes.
With Agence-France Presse