Diplomatic efforts continue. Emmanuel Macron will travel to Moscow on Monday February 7 to meet Vladimir Putin on the subject of tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The next day, the Head of State will join Kiev to meet the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
For several days, the French president has been increasing talks, with the aim of avoiding an armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Westerners accuse Moscow of having gathered some 100,000 men on its border with Ukraine and fear a military operation. Vladimir Poutine, him, claims the freezing of the enlargement of NATO in the east of Europe and especially the maintenance of Ukraine out of the Atlantic Alliance. “All the elements are in place for a Russian intervention”, warned the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Yves Le Drian, on Wednesday on France 2. If this offensive occurs, could France be involved militarily? Response elements.
No obligation to intervene
“There is absolutely no obligation for France to send any force whatsoever, anywhere in the world”, reminds franceinfo Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). A principle nevertheless applies to Paris, as a member (and co-founder) of NATO: Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty specifies that an armed attack against a member of the Atlantic Alliance “shall be considered an attack directed against all parties”.
Thereby, “each member of the Alliance (…) will take the measures it deems necessary to come to the aid of the country attacked”, adds the organization. This is’“a general obligation of solidarity”, summarizes the political scientist. Paris, however, was keen to ensure that she kept “total freedom of appreciation” for its contribution to the operations of the Atlantic Alliance, completes the permanent representation of France to NATO.
Moreover, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. The Alliance had supported the imminent accession of Kiev in 2008, through the Bucharest Declaration, but the project did not come to fruition. Since 2020, the country is officially a partner “benefiting from the ‘new opportunities’ program” organisation. This status “aims to maintain and deepen cooperation between Allies and partners who have made significant contributions” to the actions of the Alliance. Kyiv can thus benefit from“targeted opportunities”such as“expanded access to interoperability exercise programs, as well as information sharing”says NATO.
Possible discreet material support
Several members of the Atlantic Alliance, such as the Baltic countries, Poland or the United Kingdom, have announced their desire to “support militarily” Ukraine against Russia, recalls The world. London has already sent anti-tank weapons and other military equipment, while Washington, “main western backer of Ukraine on the military level”announced the shipment of 90 tonnes “lethal aid, including ammunition for Ukraine’s frontline defense”, continues the daily. The newspaper specifies that Brussels has granted 31 million euros to Kiev within the framework of the European Peace Facility (EFF).
And Paris? “For now, France has been more measured than some Western partners with regard to its direct support for the defense of Ukrainian territory”emphasizes Bruno Tertrais. “France believes that a greater investment would reduce its chances of playing an important role in de-escalating the crisis”explains the specialist.
Material support would not come under a “Aid as such, but from contracts for the sale or transfer of armaments which must go through the usual arms export control circuit”explains again The world. France could therefore study more or less recent requests from Ukraine, which has been trying to modernize its army since 2014.
A strengthening of its presence in the region
“The French defense apparatus is already present near Ukraine”emphasizes Bruno Tertrais. “France patrols in particular in the Black Sea region, by sea and air means.” Paris is also engaged around Ukraine, as part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence (ePP) in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. An initiative to show “the solidarity of the countries of the Alliance, as well as their determination and their ability to react by triggering an immediate allied response to any aggression” In the region. According to the permanent representation of France to NATO, nearly 300 French soldiers have been involved in this mission since 2017.
Emmanuel Macron recently mentioned the “availablity” from France “to (commit) to new ePP missions (…) in particular in Romania if they were decided” within NATO. The country shares part of its border with Ukraine. “A team of experts went on site, several scenarios are studied, from military cooperation to the deployment of a joint battle group (mixing soldiers, armored vehicles, aircraft, etc.)”specifies the staff at Parisian.
According to the Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, questioned on France Inter, “several hundred” French soldiers could thus be deployed in Romania. “It is not intended for any military escalation”but at a “reinsurance as part of a defensive alliance”. “We are ready to defend the countries which today find themselves closest to this zone of tension, the primary issue of which is Ukraine”assured the Minister.
“The French contingent could go up to 1,000 soldiers, which is very significant for this type of device”comments Bruno Tertrais. “For France, this is a real rebalancing of its military investment in NATO”but “is not intended to be an element of NATO’s immediate defense in the coming weeks”. For the researcher, it is also a matter of having “more visibility on the Black Sea region, which is increasingly becoming an area of competition between Russia and Turkey”. “The third objective, in my view, is to strengthen defense and security ties with an old friend, Romania”he adds.
A responsibility within NATO
On 1 January, the date on which it took over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union, France also took over “of NATO’s military force having the highest level of operational readiness”, dubbed the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). This very rapid reaction force, launched in 2014 “in response to the crises in the Middle East and the aggression perpetrated by Russia against Ukraine (…) is permanently available and able to deploy in a few days in order to defend any country of the Alliance”. It is notably made up of 3,500 soldiers from the Franco-German Brigade.
“This force is only activated by consensus”explains Bruno Tertrais. “In an extreme scenario where NATO would feel compelled to activate these reaction forces, the French army would then have a particular responsibility for commanding these advanced elements of the rapid reaction force”, continues the researcher. In the event of a Russian offensive, what criteria could prompt NATO to activate this force? “Only if a major Russian offensive leads the North Atlantic Council to believe that there may be a threat to the borders of NATO countries”replies Bruno Tertrais.