2024 is projected to be the hottest year recorded, with global temperatures likely surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. As COP29 approaches amid severe climate challenges, including pollution and election-related concerns, there are signs of progress. Global emissions forecasts have improved due to new commitments, and China’s emissions appear to peak earlier than expected. Renewable energy is rapidly growing, and deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased, highlighting potential pathways for sustainability.
The Projected Hottest Year: 2024
It’s almost a certainty that 2024 will be recorded as the hottest year in history. Although the European Copernicus service is yet to provide final confirmation, the current trajectory suggests that it will mark the first time global average temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Climate Challenges and COP29 Insights
The unfortunate news for our planet continues as COP29, the United Nations climate conference, is set to commence on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Recent events include devastating floods in Spain’s Valencia region, a severe pollution haze over northern India and Pakistan, primarily caused by low-quality diesel, and a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicating slow progress in energy efficiency improvements across various nations. Additionally, the recent election of Donald Trump in the United States raises concerns, as his previous term saw the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and significant cuts to critical federal funding related to climate research.
This year’s COP29 is hosted in Azerbaijan, a country known for its oil and gas production and authoritarian governance, raising alarms about the treatment of human rights and climate activists, as well as journalists, who have faced arrests in recent days. The European Parliament has declared that these conditions are ‘incompatible’ with hosting such an important climate conference.
Yet, amidst these challenges, there are glimmers of hope. The annual COP conferences, established since the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, have played a crucial role in averting billions of tons of CO2 emissions. Despite the world being off track from limiting warming to the desired 1.5 degrees, these conferences have successfully redirected us from an even more perilous path toward a potential 3 or 4 degrees increase.
Positive Trends in Emissions and Renewable Energy
During the 2015 Paris Agreement discussions, global policies were on a trajectory predicting a 3.5 degrees temperature rise by 2100. However, new commitments over the past nine years have now adjusted this forecast to a range of 2.6 to 2.8 degrees. Notably, China, which contributes nearly a third of the world’s CO2 emissions, appears to be nearing its peak greenhouse gas emissions ahead of its 2030 target, thanks to its aggressive renewable energy initiatives, particularly in solar energy. Reports indicate that emissions in China did not rise in the third quarter of 2024, suggesting a promising shift towards sustainability.
The International Energy Agency remains optimistic, suggesting that global fossil fuel consumption could peak before 2030 with the rise of clean technologies, despite increased oil production in certain countries. Furthermore, a study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research reveals that 30% of 1500 regions worldwide have managed to reduce emissions while simultaneously experiencing economic growth over the last three decades. For instance, EU nations have successfully reduced emissions by 37% since 1990, all while their GDP has increased by 68% according to the European Commission.
Renewable energy has also seen a remarkable 50% growth in 2023, marking the fastest expansion in two decades. Predictions indicate that by 2025, renewables will surpass coal as the primary source of electricity generation. Additionally, the recycling of rare metals, essential for the energy transition, is expected to improve significantly. Mario Draghi, former president of the European Central Bank, noted that enhancing the circularity of metals could meet 50% of global demand over the long term.
The RMI think tank further projects that with advancements in recycling methods and extending battery life, by 2040, the need for newly mined minerals for batteries could reach zero, reducing the need for mining activities that often have detrimental effects on both the environment and communities.
Lastly, there is encouraging news regarding deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon, which have dropped by 30.6% year-over-year from August 2023 to July 2024. While experts assert that this reduction is still insufficient and needs to accelerate, it represents a positive change following the destructive policies of the Bolsonaro administration. President Lula has prioritized this issue, which will be a central topic at the upcoming COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where countries will be expected to commit to new greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.