Even though we have known for several years that fossil fuels fuel climate disruption that threatens humanity, the United Nations climate conference (COP28) only took place this year. to include the need for a “transition” away from oil, gas and coal. A gain fiercely negotiated and welcomed by many, but insufficient to hope to change the warming trajectory on which the planet finds itself.
At the end of negotiations which exceeded the deadline set for the end of this conference, the president of COP28, Sultan al-Jaber, managed to resolve the impasse which persisted on the central issue of the negotiations: fossil fuels .
Instead of avoiding naming the “elephant in the room”, as we have done for years, he opted for a formula which has the merit of pointing the finger at the responsibility for our dependence on oil, gas and coal in the dangerous rise in global temperatures. But the chosen vocabulary also avoids paving the way for the necessary elimination of these energies, an option rejected out of hand by several producing countries.
The non-binding text thus invites States to “make a transition away from fossil fuels” which is consistent with the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement, namely limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5°. C, compared to the pre-industrial era.
This transition, it is specified in the document, must however be done “in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, by accelerating action in this crucial decade, in order to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 in accordance with scientific recommendations. “. The transition in a “fair, orderly and equitable manner” means respecting a different pace depending on the countries, their development needs and their historical responsibility for global warming.
The members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have therefore abandoned their desire to block any inclusion of the term “fossil fuels” in the final text. And once this was adopted, on Wednesday, these countries announced that global oil consumption will continue to experience “healthy” growth towards a new record in 2024. This was expected to exceed 104 million barrels per day, compared to a average of 102 million this year.
A report published just before COP28 by the International Energy Agency warned that in addition to eliminating the still widely used coal (nine billion tonnes consumed in 2022), it would be necessary to reduce by at least 75%. the use of oil and gas within 25 years to hope to limit warming to the viable threshold of 1.5°C.
The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, also insisted on the fact that the agreement must send a clear message to countries and companies which still derive enormous profits from the exploitation of polluting energies. “I want to say that the exit from fossil fuels is inevitable, whether they like it or not. Let us hope that it does not come too late,” he stressed, addressing “those who opposed a clear reference” to this notion of elimination in the COP28 text.
” Draw “
Fellow at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal and senior advisor at Copticom, Hugo Séguin welcomes the progress of this COP in defining the “number one issue” of mitigating global warming. But he is very cautious about real gains.
“The problem is getting better and better named. But ultimately, the vocabulary is not strong enough to influence the way countries and companies operate in their relationships with fossil fuels. Companies will always be able to claim to be working in favor of the transition by highlighting their carbon neutrality objectives,” he explains.
He points out that the final text recognizes, for example, the role that experimental carbon “capture” and storage technology could play. In Canada, the tar sands industry is banking heavily on this sector to be able to reduce production emissions while increasing the quantity of barrels extracted from the ground over the coming years.
Mr. Séguin also believes that countries like the United States (the world’s leading oil producer and supporter of the export of liquefied natural gas) or Canada will be able to continue to focus on growth in production, while claiming to respect the spirit of the text which was adopted on Wednesday in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
“It is therefore a draw between those who wanted fossil fuels to be shown the door and those who wanted to maintain the status quo,” illustrates the expert on international climate negotiations. Mr. Séguin adds that the standoff will continue next year, during COP29, which will be held in Azerbaijan, another country whose economy is dependent on the exploitation of fossil fuels. “But the pressure will increase and perhaps we will reach a consensus on the fact that we need to get out of fossil fuels more quickly and in a more radical way. »
The Canadian Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault, for his part insisted on the progress in this new agreement, which comes eight years after the signing of the Paris Agreement. “The text contains decisive commitments in terms of renewable energy, energy efficiency and the transition away from fossil fuels,” he said.
Canadian environmentalists nevertheless intend to increase pressure on the federal government in the wake of COP28. The latter announced during the conference his intention to possibly cap greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry, but without restricting the planned growth of production in certain provinces very dependent on this industry.
“While the final agreement does not include a clear commitment to phasing out all fossil fuels, pressure for a moratorium on oil and gas production in Canada will certainly increase as extreme weather events further destroy our communities and our economies,” said Sabaa Khan, executive director for Quebec and the Atlantic and director of the Climate Solutions program at the David Suzuki Foundation.