COP28, which begins Thursday in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, will be the scene of the first global review of climate action since the Paris Agreement in 2015. As global warming accelerates rather than slows down, the challenges will be numerous and expectations will be high.
Bad news keeps piling up
Eight years after the Paris Agreement, in 2015, it is time to take stock. And unfortunately, the bad news keeps piling up. “I have to stretch my imagination to comment on all this bad news! », says Caroline Brouillette, general director of the Climate Action Network in Canada. Bad news includes this recent report from the United Nations Environment Program indicating that global warming is accelerating rather than slowing, and could reach 2.5 to 2.9°C by the end of the century. This is well above the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 to 2°C.
PHOTO SAI AUNG MAIN, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Residents of Bago Township, Burma, carry groceries as they walk down a flooded street after heavy rains. Global warming is accelerating rather than slowing to the point where it could reach 2.5 to 2.9°C by the end of the century.
A first global assessment
“This is the first challenge of this COP,” underlines Caroline Brouillette: it will be the occasion for the first global assessment since the Paris Agreement. We take a moment to evaluate progress and see how we can correct things. It’s an important COP because of that,” she adds. “We see it with the results, we are far from the targets set,” corroborates Philippe Simard, lecturer at the School of Applied Politics at the University of Sherbrooke. But the question now is what we are going to do with this assessment. » “Will we be able to get over the fact that things are bad? », asks Caroline Brouillette.
The elephant in the room
The other issue is that of phasing out fossil fuels, a question which has still not been resolved, despite abundant evidence of their negative impact on the climate. “It’s going to be a very hot issue. Many countries support the exit (phase-out) fossil fuels,” says Mme Brouillette. Canada supports their gradual elimination, but does not support a proposal that recommends the “total” exit from fossil fuels. “What’s encouraging is that we got our foot in the room talking about this [les énergies fossiles] in Glasgow [COP26 en 2021]. It will take a few years to get there, but it is inevitable that it will happen,” believes Philippe Simard.
PHOTO ELI HARTMAN, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
One of the main issues is that of phasing out fossil fuels, a question which has still not been resolved, despite abundant evidence of their negative impact on the climate.
Tensions between North and South
Could COP28 lead to a breaking point between the South and the North, if certain important discussions fail? “We see that there are growing tensions. The countries of the South find that they are being taken for a ride by the North,” says Caroline Brouillette. Indeed, Western countries have been able to achieve their ambitions thanks to fossil fuels for more than 150 years, and the nations of the South must now do without them to limit the effects of global warming. “Developed countries which have benefited from the carbon economy must help other countries,” argues Philippe Simard, recalling that it is a question of “climate justice”. “We are talking about common but differentiated responsibility regarding GHG emissions,” he adds.
PHOTO AL ZULKIFLI, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
A child amidst smoke from a forest fire in Ogan Ilir, South Sumatra.
Canada among the largest emitters since 1850
Between 1850 and 2021, humanity released around 2500 billion tonnes of CO2 in the air. The United States contributed 20% of this total, followed by China (11%), Russia (7%), Brazil (5%) and Indonesia (4%), according to an assessment by the site Carbon Brief. Note that this assessment also takes into account emissions from deforestation and changes to land uses. Canada is also at 10e world rank in this sad list. At the end of 2021, the world had exhausted 86% of the carbon budget allowing it to limit global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
Canada behind on its objectives
Some countries are more advanced than others in achieving their GHG emissions reduction objective. This is particularly the case for China, which is only 2% away from reaching its emissions reduction target by 2030, compared to the 2015 level. Conversely, Canada is far behind with a delay of 27%, reports the latest report on emissions gaps produced by the UN. If the objectives of China and India are less ambitious than those of Canada, “we should not think that they [la Chine et l’Inde] don’t make an effort. We even saw a progression in their ambitions,” points out Philippe Simard. “Canada’s 27% delay,” notes Caroline Brouillette, “is practically the equivalent of the emissions from the oil and gas sector in the country. »
