COP28 | “Failure is not an option,” says the president

(Dubai) So close to the goal, the Emirati president of COP28, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, increased the pressure on Sunday on all the countries negotiating in Dubai on the end of fossil fuels, but the oil exporting countries, first including its neighbor Saudi Arabia, remain to be convinced.

“Failure is not an option. We are looking for the general interest,” warned Sultan al-Jaber, boss of the oil company Adnoc, during an 11-minute press conference before bringing together all the ministers in a session called “majlis”, a tradition of the countries Muslims, where they will sit in a circle to discuss on an equal footing, according to him.

“Everyone needs to be flexible,” he also said.

“We need to find consensus and common ground on fossil fuels, including coal,” he said.

“This is the first presidency to have called on all parties to propose common ground and consensus on fossil fuels. It is time for all parties to engage constructively and propose this formulation to me,” insisted the boss of the oil company Adnoc.

A new draft agreement is due to be published Monday morning.

COP28 is due to end on Tuesday.

Saudi blockade

The Emirati said unambiguously that it would not accept a compromise that is incompatible with climate “science” and keeping alive the 1.5°C warming target, set by the Paris agreement. .

“We need to find consensus and common ground on fossil fuels, including coal,” he added, boasting of being the first COP president to call for fossils to be cited in any agreement final. Coal was mentioned in 2021 in Glasgow.

From NGOs to negotiators, participants here express the same feeling that an agreement has never been closer to signal the beginning of the end of oil, gas and coal, which has been burning since the 19^e century has enabled global economic growth at the cost of global warming.

But opposition from the bloc led by Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, remains to be overcome.

“The Saudis will not accept any compromise. The United States, China, Europe and others will apply immense geopolitical pressure on them to tell them that they must not be the only ones to cause the COP to fail,” analyzes Alden Meyer, of the E3G think tank. “They won’t want to be last.”

Aid to the South

A major final agreement also depends on the pledges given to emerging countries, such as India, which still produces three quarters of its electricity by burning coal… and to developing countries which are demanding help from rich countries to install the solar energy or wind turbines that they will need, or to adapt to the ravages of climate change (dykes, buildings, health, agriculture, etc.).

“It is obvious that the least developed countries will not be able to move at the same speed as the major economic powers of the G20” to get rid of fossils, recognizes the German envoy for the climate, Jennifer Morgan.

Increasingly isolated while China is considered constructive, Saudi Arabia is accused of derailing discussions on these other subjects, to block everything.

“The Saudis are slowing down negotiations on these key subjects for developing countries, in the hope that they will be unhappy and will join them in opposing the final text on fossil fuels,” deciphers an observer involved in the discussions with of the AFP.

Pope’s prayer

The pope, who had to cancel his visit to Dubai due to bronchitis, encouraged the negotiators during the weekly Angelus prayer, asking the faithful to “pray that we achieve good results for safeguarding of our common Home and the protection of populations.”

Demonstration against OPEC

Activists briefly burst into the pavilion of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which caused scandal with the revelation on Friday of a letter calling on its members to reject any agreement targeting fossil fuels.

A handful of activists arrived at an event at the OPEC pavilion in Dubai, where they were invited to sit down before speaking for a few minutes.

“We know that OPEC sent a letter to its members asking them to oppose an exit from fossil fuels and we think that is a bad sign,” declared Nicolas Haeringer of the NGO 350.org in front of astonished visitors to the stand.

“For us, having an OPEC pavilion at the COP is like having a huge oil rig in the negotiations,” he denounced.

“We want a total, fair and rapid exit from fossil fuels,” the activists then chanted before withdrawing.

While the negotiations have officially entered into the last 48 hours, several options are still on the table, including that of having no mention of fossil fuels in the text of the final agreement, underlined Nicolas Haeringer to the AFP saying they also wanted to “put pressure”.

“The only acceptable possibility given the reality of global warming is a rapid exit,” he continued, calling on historic Western polluters “to set an example and provide funding to southern countries.”

The carbon footprint of food

Energy has its roadmap for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, drawn up by the International Energy Agency, but until now, food has had no comparable one. The United Nations Agriculture Organization (FAO) closed the gap on Sunday to achieve carbon neutrality without compromising global food supply.

In 2030, according to his scenario, methane emissions from global livestock must have fallen by 25%, compared to 2020. Ten years later, there will be no more deforestation in the world. But NGOs have criticized the lack of calls to reduce meat consumption.