COP27 in Egypt | A divided world at the bedside of a planet in danger

(Paris) The representatives of a divided world in turmoil meet on Sunday in Sharm el-Sheikh for a two-week conference at the bedside of a planet tossed about by climatic disasters and still on the way to catastrophic warming.

More than 120 heads of state and government are expected Monday and Tuesday for the “leaders’ summit” of this 27^e COP, according to the organizers, in a context of multiple and linked crises: war in Ukraine, inflationary tensions and the specter of global recession, energy, food and biodiversity crises…

Enough to relegate to the background a climate crisis that is nevertheless “existential, primordial and omnipresent”, in the words of the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sameh Choukri, who will chair COP27.

Alarming reports have multiplied since COP26 in Glasgow, when nearly 200 countries solemnly pledged to “keep alive” the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, a fundamental treaty concluded in 2015. warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era, when humans began to burn fossil fuels (coal, oil or gas) on a large scale, which emit the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming.

But since then, only 24 countries have raised their commitments and the UN sees “no credible track” to meet this objective.

Even if all countries kept their promises, which they never did, the world would be on a warming trajectory of 2.4°C by the end of the century. With current policies, a catastrophic +2.8°C is looming. “Pitifully not up to the task,” castigated United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Catastrophic impacts

However, it is not certain that COP27 will lead to real progress in this area, even if the Egyptian presidency boasts of an “implementation conference”.

Calling to leave aside the divisions, the boss of the UN-Climate, Simon Stiell, also urged Friday during a press briefing to “move from words to action”. “Paris showed us what to do. Glasgow showed us how. In Sharm el-Sheikh, it will have to be done”.

The renewed tension between the two main global polluters, the United States and China, is however weighing on the conference. Chinese President Xi Jinping will not come and American Joe Biden is expected to pass soon after the November 8 midterm elections. The two could, however, see each other on the sidelines of the G20 in Bali, during the second week of the COP.

“If the two biggest emitters don’t talk to each other, we won’t be able to hold 1.5°C,” warns Li Shuo of Greenpeace China.

However, with almost 1.2°C of warming currently, the catastrophic impacts are already multiplying, as shown in 2022: terrible floods in Pakistan, with a third of the country under water, or in Nigeria, heat waves, megafires and droughts affecting crops.

Awareness has increased in developed countries, which are also increasingly affected, but action has not followed, particularly on funding, probably the most contentious subject on the COP27 menu.

The rich countries have indeed still not kept the commitment made in 2009 to increase their funding to 100 billion dollars per year in 2020 to help the poorest reduce emissions and adapt to the effects of climate change. The amount peaked at 83.3 billion in 2020, according to the latest, disputed, report from the OECD. The target should now be reached in 2023.

Too late, and especially too little, denounce the poorest, hardly responsible for global warming but on the “front line” of its devastating effects.

“One hundred billion will not even begin to meet a fraction of the needs,” warned Friday during a press briefing Wael Aboulmagd, special representative of the Egyptian presidency of COP27. And to call for “reaching and exceeding” this objective, “important for the confidence” shaken by the countries of the South towards those of the North.

Undertaker

The most exposed countries are now calling for dedicated funding for the “loss and damage” already suffered.

But the developed countries are very reluctant, and last year only accepted the creation of a “dialogue” on the question, planned until 2024. They should however concede that the subject is officially on the agenda of the day in Sharm el-Sheikh.

“Everyone agrees that there needs to be a way to fix it. The difficulty is in the details”, emphasizes Ambassador Aboulmagd, while Simon Stiell calls for “an open and honest discussion”.

“Are we going to respond to the more than three billion people who live in vulnerable countries? “, protests Harjeet Singh, head of strategy for the Climate Action Network, the main global coalition of more than 1,800 NGOs.

“The success or failure of COP27 will be judged on an agreement on this loss and damage financing facility,” adds Munir Akram, Pakistan’s ambassador to the UN and president of the G77+China, the main group of emerging countries. and poor in the climate negotiations.

Especially since funding for adaptation, which rich countries pledged to double last year, is also lagging behind. “However, it would be better to pay for the doctor before [les dégâts] than for the undertaker after”, stings Avinash Persaud, representative of the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Motley, who campaigns for a comprehensive reform of the global financial system, to reorient it towards climate action.