The very new climate commitments of the States would always lead to a warming of 2.7 ° C, at best 2.1 ° C taking into account the promises of carbon neutrality, according to the latest UN estimate published Tuesday during COP26.
The annual benchmark report of the United Nations Environment Program, published just before the Glasgow climate conference, warned against a “catastrophic” warming of +2.7 ° C, or +2.2 ° C in adding mid-century carbon neutrality targets.
With the commitments of 33 new countries during the COP and just before, including Brazil, Argentina, and especially India, which has strengthened its emission reduction targets for 2030 and announced carbon neutrality for 2070, these forecasts change only minimally, according to figures released Tuesday.
The current commitments of 152 countries representing 88% of global greenhouse gas emissions would thus make it possible to reduce emissions by an additional 4.8 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030, against 0.7 Gt in the previous estimate. The improvement is particularly linked to the new 2030 targets for Saudi Arabia and China, according to UNEP.
In terms of temperature trajectory, the world would still be heading towards +2.7 ° C by 2100, very far from the objectives of the Paris agreement to limit warming to well below +2 ° C, if possible at +1.5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era.
By adding the new promises of carbon neutrality, the temperature rise could be limited to 2.1 ° C, or 0.1 ° C better than the previous estimate.
But “given the lack of transparency of carbon neutrality promises, the lack of an accountability mechanism and verification system, and the fact that very few of the commitments for 2030 clearly put countries on a path to carbon neutrality. , achieving these carbon neutrality goals remains uncertain, ”commented UNEP.