China and the United States, the world’s leading emitters of greenhouse gases, announced a surprise agreement at COP26 on Wednesday, reviving hopes two days before the end of this crucial climate conference.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, host of the Glasgow conference, had barely called for a “strong impetus” in the talks, assuring that there would be “no excuses” for failing, when Beijing and Washington announced a “joint statement on strengthening climate action”.
The two main world powers, whose rivalry had seemed in recent months to spill over into the field of climate diplomacy, are committed to doing more to fight against global warming, the consequences of which are increasingly being felt around the world. : droughts, floods, mega-fire, with their growing procession of victims and damage.
They undertake, without very precise details, to “take reinforced measures to raise ambitions during the 2020s”, reaffirming their attachment to the objective of the Paris Agreement, that is to say a limited warming “well below”. 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, and if possible, 1.5 ° C.
However, according to the UN, the world is still on a “catastrophic” trajectory of 2.7 ° C warming, and the COP26 is considered crucial to put the climate fight back on track.
Catastrophic warming
Beijing and Washington also pledge to work in Glasgow for “an ambitious, balanced and inclusive outcome on mitigation. [la baisse des émissions], adaptation and financial support to poor countries.
An agreement hailed as “an important step in the right direction” by the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres. “Beyond the COP, it is important for the world”, for his part declared to AFP the vice-president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans.
Early Wednesday, after 10 days of discussions, the British presidency of the COP issued a first draft final declaration which called for strengthening and accelerating the pace of climate commitments by all countries to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement. This text provoked mixed reactions, especially from poor countries, who insist that the richest keep their promise of aid.
Beyond the COP, it’s important for the world
The project, which will still be the subject of negotiations and which may change by the end of the COP, scheduled for Friday but which could be postponed, calls on countries to “revise and strengthen” from 2022 the national contributions (CDN) which set their short-term commitments.
The Paris Agreement (2015) requires a review of NDCs every five years, but many countries request a higher frequency. The latest UN estimates are alarming: the world would still be on the path to “catastrophic” warming of + 2.7 ° C by the end of the century.
“Far from the objectives”
The project also encourages countries to “accelerate the phase-out of coal and fossil fuel financing”. Such an explicit mention of fossil fuels, responsible for most of the emissions, is unprecedented, and does not appear in the Paris Agreement in particular. But it promises to be bitterly disputed until the conclusion of the final text, in particular by the producing countries.
On the burning issue of financing, the text “notes with regret” the failure of developed countries to keep their promise to mobilize from 2020 some 100 billion US dollars per year in climate aid to poor countries.
Often, the least polluters are also the most exposed to the ravages of climate change, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Tuvalu Archipelago recalled, telling COP delegates “we are sinking” in a video. showing him standing in the ocean, with water at mid-thigh.
The text does not put forward any concrete solution on financing, but calls for the strengthening of “adaptation” measures to the effects of climate change.
Adaptation currently only accounts for about a quarter of this aid, compared to 75% spent on reducing emissions. Poor countries demand at least parity.
Regarding the other very controversial issue of “loss and damage” already suffered by the most exposed countries, the text “recognizes” the problem and its “urgency”. But there again, without concrete modalities of action.
Negotiating groups from poor and emerging countries expressed almost unanimous concern during a meeting organized to gather initial reactions to the project.
On the science side, Joeri Rogelj, member of the UN group of experts on the climate, welcomed “progress”, but noted that the commitments were for the time being “far from the objectives of the Paris Agreement”.