The expectations were immense, the challenge almost impossible: 200 countries with divergent interests and sometimes diametrically opposed means had to agree to a more binding climate agreement. Results ? The COP26 gave birth to a historic and imperfect agreement. The text recognizes for the first time the role of fossil fuels in global warming, but was watered down at the last moment by a compromise on coal.
The president of the COP26, the Briton Alok Sharma, had pledged to deliver an agreement on Saturday.
He will have put all his weight in the balance to pass the text which was amended at the last minute by India so that it is a question of “reducing” the use of coal rather than “phasing it out”. .
The reactions were quick after the adoption of the Glasgow climate pact: for many, the conference was a failure despite some promising announcements. And this new agreement will be considered a success only if it results in a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the next few years, recognizes Hugo Séguin, specialist in climate negotiations and fellow at the Center for Studies. and international research at the University of Montreal (CÉRIUM).
However, according to the most recent analysis of the Climate Action Tracker, the commitments announced to date would limit warming to 2.4 ° C by 2100, well above the target of 1.5 ° C. The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has moreover described the agreement as “not important, but insufficient”.
PHOTO PHIL NOBLE, REUTERS
Steven Guilbeault, Minister of the Environment and Climate Change of Canada
“But we know we need to do more and the whole world needs to do more as well. Canadians have given us a mandate to go further and faster in our fight against climate change and there is no doubt that we have our work to do, ”said the new Minister of Environment and Change Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, on Twitter late in the evening.
Disappointment
The disappointment was also palpable on Saturday when the majority of nations had given their support to the text proposed by the presidency, despite many disagreements. Alok Sharma also insisted on the fact that, although imperfect, the text preserves the objective of limiting warming to 1.5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era.
“We did everything to keep the 1.5 ° C target alive, but it is as if we had not put the means to get there. We have not yet taken any real decisions, ”notes the president of the Quebec Association of Physicians for the Environment, Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers.
While the pact recognizes the importance of reducing CO emissions2 45% by 2030, countries will need to work harder over the next few years to get there. The latest reading of carbon concentrations in the atmosphere, dated November 12, points to 415.72 parts per million, well above the limit needed to contain global warming to 1.5 ° C.
We continue to postpone our decisions until tomorrow.
The DD Claudel Pétrin-Desrosiers, President of the Quebec Association of Physicians for the Environment
The DD Pétrin-Desrosiers also criticizes the large contingent of the fossil fuel lobby at COP26. According to a compilation produced by the NGO Global Witness, the industry had more representatives in Glasgow than the entire Brazilian delegation, the largest of all the nations present.
“It hasn’t been a good week for the fossil fuel industry, nevertheless believes Hugo Séguin. There were several commitments during this COP [au sujet des énergies fossiles]. It is nevertheless revealing: despite their presence, they were not able to prevent it. And it’s not going to get better for them in the next few years. ”
While India’s last-minute amendment shocked many, Mr. Séguin did not say he was surprised by this position. “India has always held the same rhetoric. It is a developing country that is going to need a lot of energy over the next few years. There they say to industrialized countries: you have used the open bar for years, we are entitled to it a bit. ”
“The COP of inadequate efforts”
“So it doesn’t matter what vocabulary you use [dans l’entente], it’s still a gain, ”adds Hugo Séguin. But no one is overflowing with enthusiasm about the conclusions of COP26. “There have been some interesting announcements. But if we do not manage to achieve the overall objective, we cannot proclaim victory, ”says Émile Boisseau-Bouvier, climate policy analyst at Équiterre.
“It is true that there has been some progress on certain subjects, but the progress remains fragile. For me, COP26 is the COP of inadequate efforts, ”retorts Eddy Pérez, director of international climate diplomacy for Climate Action Network Canada.
Several experts point out that time may be running out when the planet has already warmed by 1.1 ° C since the pre-industrial era.
And despite a decline in 2020 due to the pandemic, global GHG emissions started to rise again in 2021 with the economic recovery.
Questions also remained unanswered at the end of this international conference. The disappointment was deep for many representatives of developing countries who spoke on Saturday before the final adoption of the agreement. For them, the difference between a warming of 1.5 ° C and 2 ° C will be counted in deaths and in territories engulfed by the rise of the oceans.
In addition, industrialized countries have still not kept their promise to deliver $ 100 billion per year to the poorest countries, which will also be the hardest hit by the climate crisis.
“It’s an agreement that is insufficient, incomplete, both in terms of targets [de réduction] States than funding for developing countries, concludes Hugo Séguin. But this is only the photo of the level of commitment of countries to this COP. It is an agreement that reflects the deficit of ambition. ”
Climatic changes
2.7 ° C
Warming expected by 2100 before COP26 is held
2.4 ° C
Warming planned if all COP26 commitments are met
1.5 ° C
Limit of warming compared to the pre-industrial era beyond which the effects could be irreversible
1.1 ° C
The planet has already warmed by 1.1 ° C since the pre-industrial era.
They said
COP26 is over. Here is a brief summary: Blah, blah, blah.
Climate activist Greta Thunberg, on Twitter
The COPs come to set the minimum bar and there are countries which are lowering it even more. It is clear that the more the language is weak, evasive, fuzzy, the more it allows certain countries, certain companies to continue their activities without being disturbed. It will certainly have consequences in degrees Celsius on the climate, on our planet.
Émile Boisseau-Bouvier, Climate Policy Analyst at Équiterre
All in all, this is not the agreement that humanity is entitled to expect, in a context where we are already struck by extreme climatic events.
Patrick Bonin, spokesperson and responsible for the Climate-Energy campaign for Greenpeace Canada
This is a big missed opportunity. It was a very important step, Glasgow, there are things that have progressed on certain points, but given the current urgency, it is not enough.
Thomas Burelli, professor of law at the University of Ottawa and observer for the Center québécois du droit de l’environnement in Glasgow
In my opinion, today’s agreement reflects first and foremost a disconnect between what science, the most vulnerable people and countries experience, demand and demand, and the slowness in which the political community understands. the current climate emergency.
Eddy Pérez, Director of International Climate Diplomacy for the Climate Action Network Canada
The BOGA, a “good move” from Quebec
In Glasgow, Quebec became the third state to join the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA), led by Costa Rica and Denmark. A “good shot” for Quebec, notes Émile Boisseau-Bouvier, climate policy analyst at Équiterre, who explains that it is “an alliance of countries that are committed to putting an end to exploration and exploitation of fossil fuels on their territory ”. France, Greenland, Ireland, Switzerland and Wales have followed suit. California, Portugal and New Zealand have become associate members, while Italy has been named a BOGA “friend”. “Having these alliances makes it possible to send a strong message, to attract other players, and to unite in this objective,” said Émile Boisseau-Bouvier.
With Lila Dussault, Press