Emmanuel Macron is visiting Budapest on Monday, December 13, the first of a French head of state since 2007 in Hungary. The President of the Republic is due to meet the controversial head of government Viktor Orban, whom he describes as a “political adversary”, but one “European partner”. “The potential points of agreement are much more important than one might think”, estimated the historian specializing in Central Europe and professor at the Sorbonne Paul Gradvohl, on franceinfo.
franceinfo: We know the differences between Emmanuel Macron and Viktor Orban. What are the potential deals?
Paul Gradvohl: The potential points of agreement are much more important than what one might think since the posture of each one requires to present oneself as very distant from the other. But in practice, all of Viktor Orban’s speech in the fight against immigration is absolutely not opposed to the French practice, which everyone knows is not the reception by tens of thousands of asylum seekers. In fact, there are convergences. And then there are French economic interests. French diplomacy is very largely devoted to defending major contracts, particularly nuclear, but not only. So Viktor Orban, as he did very well with the Germans, with the Russians, with the Chinese, knows full well that by discussing with a head of state, he can give rise to economic hopes, whether in terms of trade, purchases, sales or in terms of investment. There are possible points of agreement which are quite important.
What interest has Viktor Orban in organizing this meeting with Emmanuel Macron? What does he want to demonstrate?
Viktor Orban tries to make the Hungarian people believe that they are the center of European life. [Cette visite] confirms him in his speech which does not correspond to any reality, but for his public relations campaign before the legislative elections which will take place next spring. It is clear that Mr. Orban will use this meeting for very personal ends. These are very important elections in Hungary because Viktor Orban has for the first time in front of him someone who succeeds in mobilizing, including former voters of Fidesz, [son parti].
“For the first time since 2010, he is truly in a position to be challenged.”
Paul Gradvohl, historian specializing in Central Europe and professor at the Sorbonneto franceinfo
Of course, that makes him very, very nervous. If you go to Mr. Orban’s communication pages, he has just announced in less than a month a certain number of salary increases, category by category, from nurses to teachers, to nursery managers. The last big announcement is the thirteenth month of retirement which will be granted just before the elections. This is to say if there is a little fire in the lake.
What attitude is Hungary adopting towards the European Union? Because we saw it adopt several disputed laws in Brussels. They also challenge the supremacy of European law over national law.
The Hungarian government took positions that were identical to the Polish government and the Polish Constitutional Court, which challenged the rule of European law. However, the lawyers of the Hungarian Constitutional Council, who are all men of Orban today, did not want to fully follow the government on this road. A few days ago, they announced that in the end, it could not be openly said that the primacy of European law did not exist according to Hungarian constitutional standards. So, there, we are in a completely new situation for a few days and the question is: Will President Macron be able to play with this opening?