The construction sites will not stop in 2023, predicts the Commission de la construction du Québec, which published its annual forecasts on Thursday.
The joint body that oversees the construction industry estimates that the number of hours worked will exceed 200 million next year for the second consecutive year. This number represents a decline of 4% from the 210 million hours compiled in 2022, an all-time high.
In short, 2023 will be the second best year in history.
We could have expected much worse because of the meteoric rise in interest rates of 400 basis points since the spring and the recession, which seems inevitable in 2023, according to Desjardins.
“The reason is that the main construction sites have fallen behind due to the lack of manpower and delays in the delivery of materials,” explains Mélanie Ferland, economist at the CCQ, in an interview. The seniors’ homes, for example, will end in 2023.
The increase in financing costs will be felt gradually over the next 18 months, she adds.
7% drop in housing starts in 2023
If we look at the forecasts by industry sector, the industrial sector will remain stable at 12 million hours. We know that available premises remain very rare, a situation that favors new construction.
The institutional and commercial sector will lose 3% of its hours next year, to 114.5 million hours.
By far the largest in the industry, this sector covers government and para-government projects: hospitals, schools and seniors’ homes.
PHOTO DOMINICK GRAVEL, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
A seniors’ home under construction in Châteauguay
“Planned public investments remain on the rise next year, limiting the decline in the sector,” notes the CCQ in the document. Outlook.
On a discordant note, the high-rise housing sub-sector over six stories will experience a slowdown due to rising interest rates.
With the end of the La Romaine megasite, the civil engineering and roadwork sector will yield 5% of its hours, at 36.5 million hours. The start of the extension of the blue line of the metro will compensate for part of this.
It is the residential sector that will suffer the most next year. The CCQ expects housing starts to drop by 6.8% to 55,000 units. The number of hours worked will experience a reduction of the same order of magnitude, to 39 million hours.
At the regional level, four regions will experience a burst of activity. This is James Bay with certain institutional sites on Cree territory, Bas-Saint-Laurent–Gaspésie is benefiting from the construction of the LM Wind Power wind turbine blade plant.
In Estrie, the Kruger pasta plant in Bromptonville will keep workers busy, while in Mauricie–Bois-Francs, Virentia-Premier Tech is expanding an alfalfa processing plant. that grab your attention.