Conservative Party of Canada | What if Jean Charest finished third?

There is a lot of talk about the upcoming battle between Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest, a duel between two talented debaters. For many party members, these two candidates are polarizing: we love them or we can’t suffer them.

Rudy Husny
Conservative strategist, adviser in the Harper government and in the opposition

The communicating vessels theory plays a determining role in a multi-round preferential vote election. Each recruits as many members as possible to support their candidacy, but the second choice is decisive for the candidate in the end. The work of one can help the victory of the other. It is therefore necessary to spare the disappointed members who could give you their support. This is the reason why several analysts believe that several progressive candidates are needed to ensure Jean Charest a path to victory.

It is estimated that the Charest team must recruit 100,000 new members to have a chance of winning against Pierre Poilievre, who is favored by the current members.

Brian Lilley of Sun evokes the figure of 1000 members per day to achieve this. It’s not nothing ! With two teams, we share the work. Each mobilizes its network, recruiting according to its political affinities.

The arrival in the race of the mayor of Brampton, Patrick Brown, former MP and former leader of the Progressive Party of Ontario, could change the situation. We understand why Althia Raj, journalist at Toronto Starevokes a possible tacit agreement between the two clans, a kind of non-aggression pact.

However, one question remains: what if Patrick Brown had a better score than Jean Charest? Is it possible then that Brown’s supporters are mostly in Ontario? It would not be the first time that the presumed leader has been outwitted in politics. Patrick Brown’s organizational talent on the pitch is beyond doubt. He has already proven himself by defeating Christine Elliott for the leadership of the Progressive Party of Ontario in 2015. Against all odds, he was able to rally 41,000 members.

In terms of social media presence, Brown is one step ahead of Charest. This is an important indicator, as members tend to turn to social media rather than traditional media.

In his defense, Charest has stayed away from political life since his departure in 2012, which is why he is late in asserting himself on the internet. Patrick Brown benefits from a ready-to-use network in Ontario and a seasoned team inherited from a previous election. He has just received the support of Michelle Rempel Garner, a respected elected official who also enjoys a strong presence on social networks.

The elected official from Alberta can help her in the western provinces which, without her, would remain largely out of reach. Brown now has a national network that can help him gain support beyond the Greater Toronto Area, from Calgary to Vancouver, where he also enjoys the support of several communities whose influence extends beyond his original ridings. His position against Bill 21, more committed than that of Poilievre who made the choice to spare Quebec, can pay off. Charest will therefore have to obtain strong support in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces to be in the lead.

A last comer

There is a final comer in the race. Scott Aitchison certainly does not have the notoriety of Charest or Brown, and some even doubt that he will succeed in qualifying. During the last leadership race, MP Marilyn Gladu was unable to raise the funds necessary for her candidacy. Still, Aitchison is popular with the caucus and is positioned as a compromise candidate. Whatever his score if he were to qualify, probably between 1% and 3%, these are votes that would go neither to Charest nor to Brown in the first round.

Who would the votes of Aitchison’s supporters go to? It won’t be decisive for the big duel against Poilievre, but it could make the difference if the race between Charest and Brown were to be tight. Same calculation for possible progressive candidates who would be added to the list.

Before talking too much about the great face-to-face between Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest, it is still necessary that the latter mobilizes more support than his progressive competitor. Even if the two candidates avoid frontal attacks, both teams have every interest in not underestimating each other.