Posted at 5:00 a.m.
(Ottawa) The mutiny of a group of Conservative Party MPs that forced the departure of their leader Erin O’Toole 10 days ago has already caused a slight movement of the tectonic plates on the federal scene.
Other larger earthquakes are to be expected. They could lead to a political tremor of great intensity: the possible return of Jean Charest to Ottawa, or even the creation of a new party bringing together progressive conservatives (Red Tories) and liberals believing in the virtues of budgetary discipline (Blue Liberals).
In recent weeks, Tory MPs and strategists claiming to be from the party’s progressive wing have been talking behind the scenes about the idea of forming a new vehicle to occupy the center of the political spectrum, according to information obtained by The Press. They contacted Liberals dissatisfied with the Trudeau government’s handling of state affairs, particularly public finances and the economy. Their idea was not dismissed out of hand.
For now, this project remains embryonic and is inspired by the success of François Legault when he created the Coalition avenir Québec. However, it could take off depending on the outcome of the Conservative Party leadership race. Especially since many Liberals, especially in Ontario, lament that the Liberal Party has rivaled the New Democratic Party on the left flank since the Trudeau government came to power in 2015. The former minister of the Dalton McGuinty Liberal government in Ontario Sandra Pupatello is part of this group of liberals who feel orphaned on the federal scene. And she is far from unique. In Quebec, the interest of the former mayor of Montreal Denis Coderre, who was also a minister in the Liberal government of Jean Chrétien, has been sounded out.
It is indeed a scenario that is circulating more and more behind the scenes, that this possibility of creating a new center party that would appeal to those who are described as Red Tories and of Blue Liberals.
Yan Plante, former chief of staff of former Conservative minister Denis Lebel
“In the event that the outcome of the Conservative leadership race accentuates the division within the party, the break-up seems likely to me. At the same time, among the Liberals, some consider that the party has now been far too left since the beginning of the Trudeau years. So there are orphans there too. Thus, it is legitimate to envisage a scenario in which there would suddenly be space at the center of the Canadian political spectrum for a new party,” added Mr. Plante, now senior director at TACT Intelligence-conseil .
“Is there room on the political spectrum for a new centrist party that rejects the tribalism that liberals and conservatives espouse? I am more and more of the opinion that the answer is yes, ”wrote on Saturday the influential columnist John Ivison, of the National Post.
In Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, Conservatives fear a shift to the right of their party if Conservative MP Pierre Poilievre becomes the next leader. Their fear was amplified during the siege of the city of Ottawa by a group of demonstrators demanding an end to sanitary measures. Mr. Poilievre gave his unequivocal support to these protesters, even though some of the organizers are associated with the extreme right. “I’m proud of the truckers and they have my support,” he told the National Post last Thursday. Alberta Premier Jason Kenney was quick to condemn the outing, saying no elected official could support a movement that flouts the law and harms the Canadian economy.
To counter a victory for Pierre Poilievre, Conservative MPs from Quebec are eagerly courting former Quebec premier Jean Charest. The latter, who was leader of the Progressive Conservative Party before making the jump to provincial politics in 1998 to redress the federalist camp in Quebec after the narrow victory of the No in the 1995 referendum, is thinking about it very seriously. He could announce his intentions within a week.
If I had to bet a $10 on his application, I wouldn’t be too nervous. He receives support from across the country. It’s not just in Quebec.
A conservative source well aware of the reflection led by Mr. Charest
According to our information, former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney encourages him to return to politics. On Saturday, The duty reported that another former prime minister, Stephen Harper, has no intention of interfering in the race to block his path, as he intended to do in 2020 when Mr. Charest considered running for the leadership of the Conservative Party after the resignation of Andrew Scheer.
MP Alain Rayes is part of the group of elected officials who are trying to convince Mr. Charest. He decided to put all his weight in the balance by resigning from his post of political lieutenant – a position which required him to remain neutral in the race if he had kept it.
“People want a head of state to rule the country. They see Justin Trudeau who is incapable of making decisions. He wants to manage the border in Ukraine, but he is not even able to take care of the Canada-US border, ”said Alain Rayes on Sunday.
According to our information, former Justice Minister Peter MacKay, who came second to Erin O’Toole in 2020 during the last Conservative Party leadership race, could enter the race. “He is thinking about it very seriously. And Jean Charest’s decision will not influence his,” indicated a conservative source who is aware of the intentions of Mr. MacKay, also associated with the progressive wing of the party.
Journalist Tasha Kheiriddin is also dying to get into the race. Bilingual, native of Montreal and trained lawyer, Mme Kheiriddin is also popular with the progressive wing of the party.
“Conservatives who are socially progressive want to give leadership and party unity a chance first. It is still probably the quickest route to an election victory because the Liberals will be vulnerable next time around and face the winds of change. On the other hand, if it does not work, they will have to have a political option, ”underlines Yan Plante.