History repeats itself and, according to an old ironic law of historians, tragedies are often replayed as simple farces.
As proof, Moscow is still preparing to take control (at least de facto) of part of Ukraine as Western countries relaunch a new round of sanctions against Russia. Like in 2014, what. The incorporation of Crimea (from the Russian perspective) was then very quickly followed by measures of economic reprisals which still persist today, including on the part of Canada.
This didn’t stop it, so what’s the point? Does the punitive mechanics through the economy ultimately turn out to be as useless as it is ineffective with an extra bluster when it takes up what has already proven to be useless?
“Have the sanctions had an impact on Russia after the capture of Crimea? Yes, says Sophie Marineau, subject complex specialist, with nuances. Was the impact sufficient to cause a change in policy or government? No. »
spark plug
Sophie Marineau’s master’s degree submitted to Laval University (2017) is entitled The use of economic and diplomatic sanctions in the management of international crises. The analysis, full of statistics, focuses specifically on the cases of Afghanistan (1979) and Crimea (2014). Mme Marineau is now a PhD student at the University of Louvain, Belgium. His thesis focuses on relations between Russia and the European Union between 1992 and 2000, after the fall of the USSR.
“I’ve been interested in Russia since I finished high school,” she explains, admitting that the film Enemy at the Gate (2001) served as the spark plug for an intellectual passion that still occupies him full time. She began her MA in history in 2015, months after the first rounds of post-Crime sanctions.
His analysis concludes with a “mixed result” of this Western punitive policy for the period from 2014 to 2016, while stressing that the economic cost has been “very significant” for Russia. Its assessments point to a slowdown in the country’s international trade of more than US$183 billion between 2013 and 2015. Foreign investment losses (mainly from the European Union) then totaled US$20 billion. During this initial period, the worldwide fall in the price of hydrocarbons affected by itself the Russian extractive economy, which would have lost 65 billion in expected revenues. Unemployment, however, remained fairly stable in this huge country struggling with a decline in its population, and therefore with a shortage of labour.
Chess
Russia still retained Crimea. Setbacks under pressure also seem to be quite rare in recent history.
The great global boycott against apartheid South Africa has finally paid off. On the other hand, North Korea continues to taunt the planet with its missile tests. And Cuba has been under US sanctions for more than 60 years (with a relaxation during the Obama years).
The effectiveness of the method is more often confirmed in practice by the achievement of more modest objectives. Iran, hit hard by economic sanctions, abandoned its military nuclear program before the Trump administration terminated the deal.
The United States seems to subscribe to this retaliatory mechanism which hit 120 countries in the 20thand century, say more than half the planet, according to the accounts of Mme Marineau. In 2021, Washington still imposed 36 different sanctions regimes. The average duration of these punishments is 16 years.
There are also sanctions and penalties. Mme Marineau lists the gradations.
The first level concerns diplomatic refusals. Joe Biden has announced the cancellation of a meeting scheduled for this week with Vladimir Putin. A meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries was also canceled.
The next tiers involve economic sanctions that directly affect individuals or companies, for example by freezing the assets of corporate executives and their families in the country imposing the punishments.
These measures appeared very quickly after the Crimean crisis, in 2014, and some have since been added, and even this week. It is still necessary to have economic relations, while Canada and Russia trade very little with each other.
The use of so-called secondary sanctions has also been growing in recent years. These are economic restrictions seeking to discourage a third country from trading with a sanctioned country. The French company Total, for example, canceled a contract with Iran in 2018 for fear of American reactions.
Then come the expanded sanctions affecting economic exchange systems. Lockdowns typically start with military-grade equipment before spreading to other goods and services. The final stage of sanctions imposes an embargo.
These practices seem as old as the world. The Peloponnesian War of two and a half millennia ago (431-404 BC) offers several examples of blockades of cities. Napoleon tried to ruin the UK with the Great Continental Blockade from 1806 to 1814, which has had repercussions so far.
Workaround
Tactics have been modernized and globalization introduces a new operating framework. Countries are now much more intertwined than before. Technological means are also changing the situation by making it possible to circumvent physical barriers. Isolating a country in this context is much more complicated. “To completely isolate Russia, all countries would have to agree to play the game,” said Ms.me Marineau.
The expression “black knights” designates those who circumvent sanctions decided by a third party by continuing commercial relations with the sanctioned country. Hungary and even Greece overrode blockades against Russia after 2014.
“What we consider normal is not necessarily normal for everyone,” notes Ms.me Marineau. What is China’s current interest in imposing sanctions on Russia because of what is happening in Ukraine? »
I don’t believe in invasion. Besides, when Putin invaded Crimea, he did it all at once, without telling anyone. In eastern Ukraine, tensions have lasted for eight years.
So, again, what’s the point? “It’s a way of saying ‘I exist and I don’t agree’, replies the specialist. There aren’t many other options in international relations. There are no other concrete ways to coerce a state into its own territory without starting a war. Sanctions can also serve to contain a conflict and prevent it from spreading. »
The new punitive cycle that is beginning could be amplified with much stronger measures, for example by blocking access to the global banking system SWIFT. Russia still pays dozens of countries a day through this system and gets paid there too. “I can’t assess the impact that an anti-SWIFT sanction would have, I’m not even sure it’s feasible,” says the russologist. But if we succeeded in doing so, we would risk encouraging the alternative systems being developed. »
Still, for Mme Marineau, escalation to war remains very unlikely. She even thinks that Russia actually never intended to invade Ukraine. “Never, never, never,” she said. I don’t believe in invasion. Besides, when Putin invaded Crimea, he did it all at once, without telling anyone. In Eastern Ukraine [dans les deux républiques sécessionnistes reconnues cette semaine], tensions have lasted for eight years. »