What distinguishes this Hamas attack from previous escalations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
The level of preparation for such an assault is much higher than in recent decades, according to sociologist Rachad Antonius, professor at the University of Quebec in Montreal.
Hamas rocket attacks are generally much smaller in scale, the researcher notes.
However, this time, hundreds of militants entered Israeli territory by land, sea and air, he is surprised. “They took not only hostages, but also Israeli equipment, bulldozers, cars and food which they brought back to the occupied territories. » Such a coup requires long preparation, he analyzes.
Is it any wonder that Israeli intelligence did not anticipate the attack?
It’s more than surprising, it’s even “staggering,” notes Ferry de Kerckhove, of the University of Ottawa. “How is it that the most exceptional intelligence service in the world was cheated by Hamas? “, he asks himself.
Indeed, Israeli surveillance in occupied Palestinian territory is found at multiple levels, analyzes international reporter Peter Beaumont in the British newspaper The Guardian. In particular, vulnerable individuals are targeted by the intelligence services, as are Palestinian activists imprisoned in Israel. Not to mention the use of cutting-edge technologies.
“We can see this as a failure of the Israeli intelligence services, but also as a success of the intelligence services on the other side,” observes Rex Brynen, political scientist at McGill University. “Hamas managed to hide its preparations. And that perhaps indicates a certain complacency that has developed on the Israeli side towards Gaza. »
What are the consequences for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and the rest of the conflict?
The reform of the judicial system by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has divided the country for months. This context could have had an impact on the government’s lack of preparation in the face of the Hamas attack, believes Rex Brynen.
“For Netanyahu, [l’attaque du Hamas] may be a political occasion, where he will gain support by being tough. But he could also be blamed for his failure to anticipate the attack. He is in a position where it can harm him as much as support him,” adds the political scientist.
All experts agree that the response from the Israeli government, propelled by the far right, will be extremely violent. “This time, I think Netanyahu will go all out, but will he be able to completely liquidate Hamas? It is not easy, recognizes Mr. de Kerckhove. But there is going to be a pretty atrocious massacre of everything that can be linked to Hamas,” he predicts.
This assault could also have a unifying effect among the population in Israel, he adds.
“The Israeli response will be very severe and violent,” adds Mr. Brynen. And clearly, there is going to be a lot of human suffering. »
What impact will this attack have on the ongoing negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
This attack comes at the height of historic negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, under the aegis of American President Joe Biden. However, at the end of September, Iran warned that such a rapprochement would constitute a betrayal of the Palestinian cause.
What will happen to these talks? Difficult to say, but none of the experts interviewed by The Press does not believe that Saudi Arabia will be able to continue negotiating if Israel retaliates violently against the Palestinians.
“Privately, the Saudis will tell Israel that it can be as tough as it wants. But publicly, it will put the negotiation process on hold for a while,” predicts Rex Brynen.
The negotiations could also have galvanized the Palestinian activist base, adds Rachad Antonius. “They feel that the international community has completely abandoned Palestine, including Arab countries, who now believe that Iran is more dangerous than Israel,” he explains.
What other elements fueled the conflict?
For more than a year, tensions have been rising between Israel and the Palestinians, including in the occupied West Bank. In July, notably, a two-day Israeli military offensive in Jenin – considered a stronghold of armed Palestinian factions and “a hub of terrorism”, according to Israel – took on an unprecedented scale.
“There, hundreds of Palestinian homes are destroyed every week. It is no longer occasional, it has become daily, says Mr. Antonius. And the Gaza Strip has been under blockade for almost 20 years. It’s difficult to live there, to survive there. »
Despite the risks, many Palestinians prefer violence to the status quo, adds Antonius. “They know very well that the balance of power is not in their favor,” he notes.
However, there have been no peace talks for years. “I think that the political disinterest in resolving the conflict has helped Hamas,” adds Mr. Brynen, “because the Palestinians feel that this occupation has lasted for several generations, and that there is no hope for the future. . »