Confidence in the possibility of a compromise or “particularly difficult” negotiations in sight on fossil fuels: everyone is placing their bets on the sixth day of COP28, when the game seems more open than ever.
“Quite optimistic”
“This is at the heart of the negotiations and I don’t see how we can reach a compromise that would not include words on fossils,” Danish Minister of Development and Climate Policy Dan Jørgensen told AFP. .
“Of course it seems difficult at the moment but on the other hand it has never been such a central theme on the agenda so I am quite optimistic,” said this official, designated by the COP28 presidency to coordinate with a South African minister political discussions on the main text under negotiation.
“We will find, I am confident, a compromise which will move us in the right direction,” said the American envoy, John Kerry, on the CNA channel.
The day before, the Saudi Minister of Energy had cast a chill by saying he was “absolutely” opposed to an agreement on a reduction in fossil fuels, showing to what extent the camps are sticking to their traditional positions.
Hypocrisy
Several developing countries denounce the hypocrisy of rich countries, led by the United States and Canada, who do not set enough of an example in phasing out fossil fuels, but would like poor countries to ban hydrocarbons. They are calling for much greater financial aid commitments to help countries invest in renewable energy and the transition.
“If an extremely poor country discovers oil, how can you tell them they can’t touch it if no one helps them? », Declared to AFP the Cuban Pedro Luis Pedroso, president of the group of developing and emerging countries called “G77 and China”, essential in the standoff between North and South.
Open options
The second version of the text which will serve as a basis for discussion with a view to adoption by the end of COP28 was made public on Tuesday at 5 a.m. local time. It summarizes in 24 pages the different options put forward by the approximately 200 countries which are negotiating feverishly in Dubai.
Their divergent views are reflected in the different options left open on the essential question of the future of fossil fuels.
From an “orderly and fair exit from fossil fuels” to nothing at all on the subject, all options are on the table, suggesting fierce battles between now and the theoretical end of COP28 on December 12.
Another debate submitted to negotiators: include the objective of tripling renewable energies by 2030 or not mention the subject.
“Clear the polluters!” »
Dozens of people demonstrated at the entrance to COP28 under an already biting sun Tuesday morning, in front of a large image of a planet in flames.
“Clear the polluters!” », sang the small crowd.
Nearly 2,500 fossil fuel lobbyists have indeed obtained accreditation for the conference, according to a coalition of NGOs.
“I have zero confidence in the fact that the COP will succeed” if “the United Nations continues to allow the fossil fuel industry” to lead the debates, Thomas Harmy Joseph, of the NGO, told AFP American Indigenous Environmental Network.
” Inevitable “
It is “now inevitable” that the threshold of 1.5°C of global warming, the ambitious objective of the Paris agreement, will be exceeded “constantly” and there is a one in two chance that this will happen in only seven years, scientists from the Global Carbon Project warned on Tuesday.
The average global temperature rise reached 2°C for the first time in one day on November 20, and 2023 is expected to touch 1.5°C on average, but the Paris agreement is based on rises stabilized over the longer term, not over a single day or a year.