It is not the balance of power that was announced.
Shortly before the last election, François Legault sought a strong mandate to repatriate federal powers.
In principle, he could not have asked for better. His majority of 90 MPs is overwhelming, he is the most popular prime minister in the country1 and he is up against a worn-out minority Liberal government at the federal level.
And yet, little has changed.
When we closely examine the various files, one observation comes back: it is Mr. Legault who needs Justin Trudeau, and not the opposite. It was obvious when they met Tuesday in a café in Old Montreal.
In the past, Mr. Legault has shown that he can be circumvented. In 2021, despite his call to block the Liberals and New Democrats, Mr. Trudeau won and he now governs with the support of Jagmeet Singh.
The Conservatives took notes. Their new leader, Pierre Poilievre, does not seem to want to take over the “contract with Quebecers” from his predecessor Erin O’Toole. His strategy is more like that of Jason Kenney who, in 2011, courted cultural communities by explaining to them that the Conservatives were defending their values of individual responsibility and respect for traditions. Anyway, Mr. Poilievre has more affinity with Éric Duhaime, a fierce rival of the caquistes.
As for the Bloc Québécois, it remains the sister party of the Parti Québécois and, despite what was apparent during the 2019 campaign, it relays more the consensus of the National Assembly than the positions of the CAQ government.
In short, Mr. Legault lacks friends. Whether he likes it or not, he and Justin Trudeau are condemned to love each other.
In health, as usual, the negotiations drag on. At least, we know how they will end: faced with the begging provinces, the federal government will decide.
In immigration, Quebec also seems powerless. Last spring, Mr. Legault wanted the federal government to entrust him with the family reunification program to block those who do not speak French. Unsurprisingly, Ottawa refused to tear families apart, especially since the effect on language would have been minimal.
Mr. Legault has since refocused his demands.
He regrets that the weight of Quebec in the country is diminishing even more because of Mr. Trudeau’s plan to increase the population by 260% by the end of the century. This demographic revolution was decided without public consultation, without concern for French and without critical reflection by New Democrats and Conservatives in the face of challenges, particularly in terms of housing.
Quebec also finds itself with the bill for Roxham Road. Due to a geographical accident, the vast majority of irregular immigrants now transit there. And because of bureaucratic delays, asylum seekers wait more than a year to obtain their work permit, and then another year at least before knowing if they will be accepted as refugees. For them, it is cruel. And for Quebec, it’s costly – it ends up with most of the bill for social assistance and various social services. Each year, he must negotiate a refund with the federal government.
For French, Mr. Legault is also relegated to the role of applicant. His new reform requires that companies under federal jurisdiction (banks, maritime and air transport) be subject to Bill 101. Of the 400 companies targeted, about 30 do not yet comply. In their defense, they are in a delicate position – they must respect two laws which contradict each other. It is up to the Trudeau government to clear up this vagueness. Even though all the parties asked him to do so in the House of Commons, the Liberal leader hesitated because his MPs were hostile to any additional protection of French.
Other cases seem less complicated.
Temporary immigration will be easier to reform. Mr. Legault could use the current Canada-Quebec agreement to finally prioritize French-speaking students and universities.
For infrastructure, the federal government is already making its contribution. Mr. Trudeau has just agreed to maintain his percentage of funding during cost overruns.
Before asking for more money, Quebec should use the entire federal envelope for public transit. Nearly 2.7 of the 7.3 billion offered were not spent! The deadline: April 2023. If Quebec does not speed up the approval of its projects, it will have wasted nearly $3 billion.
Mr. Trudeau is very polite on other issues. He avoids talking about the Quebec-California carbon market. Formerly avant-garde, this system has become lax because of its too low price on pollution. And he avoids criticizing the third link too frontally, even if everything indicates that the project is not eligible for current federal funds, not to mention the environmental study that could threaten it.
Mr. Trudeau got to know Mr. Legault. When he talks to her about economics, the current flows. The agreements are concluded quickly, as we have seen for aeronautics and the Internet in the regions.
Their relationship isn’t too bad. It’s just that they have nothing to do with what Mr. Legault hoped for during the last election campaign.
The dynamic isn’t so much determined by the personality or popularity of the characters. What is at work is the usual balance of power of the federation. And it always pulls in the same direction.
1 According to an Angus Reid poll conducted in early December *, Mr. Legault obtains a satisfaction rate of 57%, the best result in the country, statistically tied with Scott Moe, Premier of Saskatchewan (56%).