The ambitious European climate objectives for 2030 have “lead in the wing”, warned Monday the Court of Auditors of the EU, for which “little elements” prove that the actions and funding planned will be sufficient to achieve them.
The European Union’s (EU) climate plan foresees a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 by 2030, accompanied by energy efficiency gains and a binding target of 42.5% renewables in energy consumption.
Admittedly, the EU has on the whole achieved the objectives it set itself for 2020 in terms of climate and energy. But “it succeeded in particular thanks to external factors”, such as the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic which reduced consumption and CO2 emissions.2notes the Court in a report.
“Concern hovers” over the years to come: “We have found little evidence to suggest that the ambitious objectives [pour] 2030 will result in sufficient actions. There is no indication that sufficient funding will be available,” notes the Luxembourg-based institution.
In its previous 2014-2020 budget, the EU was supposed to devote 20% to the climate, but according to the auditors, only 13% was actually allocated to it.
From now on, the EU has committed to devote at least 30% of its 2021-2027 budget to climate action, i.e. 87 billion euros per year.
Even if it is respected, “this amount represents less than 10% of the total necessary investments, estimated at 1 billion annually. The rest should come from national and private funds,” the report says.
However, there is no assurance on the latter, for lack of details: the data available on investment needs and sources of financing “are not sufficient to determine whether the plans [climatiques] provide a solid basis” for 2030, the Court deplores.
“These plans don’t say much about how to close the funding gap. Many signals do not make us optimistic, it is clear that more effort is needed, ”observed auditor Lorenzo Pirelli to the press.
Lack of transparency
Major pitfall: “the lack of transparency” due to the “flexibilities” granted to States to achieve their national objectives.
To reach the target levels for 2020, several countries have had to buy emission quotas or shares of renewable energy from other States which had exceeded their objectives.
In April 2023, France had not yet bought the missing shares to reach its renewable target, a unique case in the EU.
Five other countries (Slovenia, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg) could not count on their own production of renewables, reaching their objective only thanks to the flexibilities allowed by Brussels (purchase of energy from other States , joint interstate projects, etc.).
But without transparency on their “cost-effectiveness”, deplores the Court.
Another source of concern: “the national plans are not ambitious enough” to achieve the collective objective of energy efficiency that the Twenty-Seven have set themselves at EU level.
Blindly
Finally, the Court recommends accounting for all greenhouse gas emissions generated by the EU, including those linked to imported goods as well as air and maritime transport. If the latter were included, EU emissions would increase by around 10%, the report estimates.
Yet it is a “crucial element” in the transition to carbon neutrality that the EU is aiming for by 2050, insists Joëlle Elvinger, head of the audit.
The first report, also published on Monday, of the European Climate Neutrality Observatory, a structure created by several think tanks (think tanks) also calls on the EU to step up its efforts if it wants to achieve its climate goals.
It points to the too slow reduction of fossil fuels in electricity generation, the insufficient rate of decline in emissions from buildings, and the persistence of massive EU state subsidies to fossil fuels, which “exploded” in 2021- 2022 in the face of soaring prices, at the risk of “jeopardizing the entire transition”.
More generally, “the EU must have effective processes for collecting data and monitoring progress, so that we do not move blindly”, warns Eike Karola Velten, of the Institute of Ecology in Berlin, lead author of the report.