The coalition Ensemble of the Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons parties obtains between 150 and 170 deputies and becomes the second force in the Assembly, according to our Ipsos-Talan estimate.
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Emmanuel Macron has failed in his bet. The presidential camp loses its relative majority in the National Assembly and obtains between 150 and 170 seats in the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday, July 7, according to an Ipsos-Talan estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP. The Ensemble coalition came second behind the New Popular Front, which won between 172 and 192 seats. The presidential camp, however, managed to hold its ground ahead of the National Rally and its allies, which came third with between 132 and 152 seats. The left-wing alliance emerged as the leading political force in the Assembly, without however managing to obtain an absolute majority.
After the setback in the European elections, these results are a new hardship for Renaissance and its allies from MoDem and Horizons. The dissolution of the National Assembly, decided by Emmanuel Macron, ended with a massive decline of the Macronist bloc: just before, it had a force of 250 parliamentarians (169 Renaissance, 50 from MoDem and 31 from Horizons). Certainly far from the absolute majority, set at 289 deputies, but sufficient to pass texts by voting with the left or the right. It was still 110 elected representatives fewer than in 2017.
Many figures from the presidential camp were also eliminated in the first round, like the former minister Clément Beaune. in Paris. Others withdrew before the second round to avoid three-way races favourable to the RN, like five members of the government. The Secretary of State for the City, Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, a close friend of the Macron couple, withdrew in Bouches-du-Rhône; Dominique Faure, the Minister Delegate for Communities and Rural Affairs, did the same in Haute-Garonne; as did the Minister Delegate for Overseas Territories, Marie Guévenoux, in Essonne.
What will happen now? The president’s supporters were in a state of uncertainty between the two rounds. “I have a hard time knowing. At the Elysée, they make 1,000 scenarios”confided to franceinfo a close friend of Emmanuel Macron. The presidential camp, which is divided on voting instructions, particularly in the event of a three-way race against the National Rally involving La France Insoumise, is also wondering about what comes next, while there is a whiff of the end of the reign. The head of Horizons, Edouard Philippe, who had accused the president of having killed the presidential majority, could thus emancipate himself. The former head of government wants to create “a more stable, more open parliamentary majority”of “the conservative right to the social democratic left”reports France Bleu. François Bayrou, the head of the MoDem, himself recommended on France 2 the composition of a “government of republican understanding outside the extremes” to appease France, without excluding being part of it or leading it.
The Macronists, part of the left without La France Insoumise and certain members of the Republicans could try to form a “grand coalition”common in European countries, but foreign to French traditions. This scenario was however still far from being unanimous before the second round. Especially since the absence of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement would prevent having an absolute majority, Emmanuel Macron having hammered home on Wednesday in the Council of Ministers that he was not “No way” of “govern” with the rebels.
A position shared by the leaders of the radical left movement, who only intend to govern to implement their program. And, if the leader of the Ecologists-EELV, Marine Tondelier, has not closed the door to this scenario, she has excluded a new “Macronist Prime Minister”. In any case, the possible partners of a possible coalition seem to agree that the discussions following the election should take place in Parliament and not in the Elysée. “Either power will be in the hands of a far-right government, or power will be in Parliament”summarized Gabriel Attal, on France Inter, Wednesday.